我国热钱流动问题研究
发布时间：2018-12-12 23:16
【摘要】：20世纪90年代以来，由于热钱的大规模流入和逆转，新兴市场国家金融危机爆发的频率也在逐步增加。随着经济全球化和金融一体化的不断发展，热钱流动规模在增加，并且呈现出隐蔽性强的特点，因此如何更加有效地对热钱进行监管就成为各国稳定金融安全需要解决的重要问题。 由于国际经济形势的变化和世界对中国经济发展预期的改变，热钱在我国呈现出了先流入后流出的状态，即自2003-2011年，我国经济增长势头强劲，人民币升值预期不断增加，随着我国资本项目自由化程度的不断提高，热钱流入国内的规模在增加，热钱在我国整体呈现净流入状态。而在2011年下半年，我国人民币汇率变化趋势和预期也开始分化，出于避险动机，我国海外人民币遭到抛售，市场流动性压力大增，我国的外汇占款也出现了连续3个月的负增长，这些迹象都表明热钱在逃离我国，，我国热钱流动的波动性增加。本文就是在这种背景下研究进入我国变化莫测的热钱所造成的影响。热钱大量充斥在我国的房地产，股票市场上，造成了经济的不稳定，严重影响着我国经济的发展，而热钱流动方向的逆转更是引发金融危机的导火线，对热钱进行有效监管是我国现阶段必须面对和解决的难题。 本文从热钱的定义出发，比较分析其规模估算方法，得出热钱变化趋势及我国热钱的现状。接着分析了热钱流入我国的途径，并指出它通过经常项目、资本项目以及非法渠道三种途径流入我国。又从国家宏观调控政策和我国微观经济市场包括外证券市场、房地产市场等角度分析了热钱流动的影响效应。最后从短期性和长期性两个方面提出了完善我国热钱监管的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, the frequency of financial crises in emerging market countries has increased gradually due to the large inflow and reversal of hot money. With the continuous development of economic globalization and financial integration, the scale of hot money flow is increasing, and it has the characteristics of strong concealment. Therefore, how to supervise hot money more effectively has become an important problem to be solved in order to stabilize financial security. As a result of the changes in the international economic situation and the changes in the world's expectations for China's economic development, hot money has shown a state of first inflow and then outflow in China. That is, since 2003-2011, China's economic growth momentum has been strong, and the expectation of RMB appreciation has been increasing. With the increasing liberalization of capital account in China, the scale of hot money flowing into China is increasing, and the hot money is in a net inflow state in our country as a whole. In the second half of 2011, the trend and expectations of the RMB exchange rate in China began to diverge. As a result of risk-averse motives, China's overseas RMB was sold off, and the market liquidity pressure increased greatly. China's foreign exchange accounts also show a negative growth for three consecutive months, all of which indicate that hot money is fleeing China, and the volatility of hot money flows in China is increasing. This paper is in this context to study the impact of unpredictable hot money into China. Hot money is flooded in the real estate and stock market of our country, causing economic instability, seriously affecting the development of our economy, and the reversal of hot money flow is the trigger of the financial crisis. The effective supervision of hot money is a difficult problem that our country must face and solve at the present stage. Based on the definition of hot money, this paper compares and analyses its scale estimation method, and obtains the trend of hot money change and the present situation of hot money in China. Then it analyzes the ways of hot money flowing into China, and points out that hot money flows into China through three ways: current account, capital account and illegal channels. The effect of hot money flow is also analyzed from the point of view of the national macro-control policy and the microeconomic market, including the foreign securities market and the real estate market. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to improve the supervision of hot money in our country from two aspects: short-term and long-term.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F831.7
本文编号：2375417
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, the frequency of financial crises in emerging market countries has increased gradually due to the large inflow and reversal of hot money. With the continuous development of economic globalization and financial integration, the scale of hot money flow is increasing, and it has the characteristics of strong concealment. Therefore, how to supervise hot money more effectively has become an important problem to be solved in order to stabilize financial security. As a result of the changes in the international economic situation and the changes in the world's expectations for China's economic development, hot money has shown a state of first inflow and then outflow in China. That is, since 2003-2011, China's economic growth momentum has been strong, and the expectation of RMB appreciation has been increasing. With the increasing liberalization of capital account in China, the scale of hot money flowing into China is increasing, and the hot money is in a net inflow state in our country as a whole. In the second half of 2011, the trend and expectations of the RMB exchange rate in China began to diverge. As a result of risk-averse motives, China's overseas RMB was sold off, and the market liquidity pressure increased greatly. China's foreign exchange accounts also show a negative growth for three consecutive months, all of which indicate that hot money is fleeing China, and the volatility of hot money flows in China is increasing. This paper is in this context to study the impact of unpredictable hot money into China. Hot money is flooded in the real estate and stock market of our country, causing economic instability, seriously affecting the development of our economy, and the reversal of hot money flow is the trigger of the financial crisis. The effective supervision of hot money is a difficult problem that our country must face and solve at the present stage. Based on the definition of hot money, this paper compares and analyses its scale estimation method, and obtains the trend of hot money change and the present situation of hot money in China. Then it analyzes the ways of hot money flowing into China, and points out that hot money flows into China through three ways: current account, capital account and illegal channels. The effect of hot money flow is also analyzed from the point of view of the national macro-control policy and the microeconomic market, including the foreign securities market and the real estate market. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to improve the supervision of hot money in our country from two aspects: short-term and long-term.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F831.7
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 相立田;;论国际游资在我国的流动途径及监管对策[J];北方经济;2010年09期
2 杨继;;国际热钱对我国经济的冲击及防治措施[J];当代经济研究;2010年05期
3 张明;徐以升;;全口径测算中国当前的热钱规模[J];当代亚太;2008年04期
4 石艾馨;萧琛;;1991～2010年热钱流入中国的动因分析[J];国际经贸探索;2011年08期
5 林源;“国际热钱”流入的风险及监管对策[J];海南金融;2004年01期
6 任海舰;;金融危机背景下热钱流入我国的规模测算与趋势分析[J];海南金融;2009年03期
7 赵彦志;;境外“热钱”、人民币汇率与物价水平[J];经济学动态;2011年04期
8 苏剑;童立;;近年来我国热钱流入规模的估算[J];经济学动态;2011年11期
9 张明;;当前热钱流入中国的规模与渠道[J];国际金融;2008年07期
10 荣毅宏;;国际“热钱”输入渠道、规模及监管对策[J];金融教学与研究;2008年01期
相关硕士学位论文 前1条
1 郑琳;国际热钱法律监管问题研究[D];西南政法大学;2009年
本文编号：2375417
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/guanlilunwen/bankxd/2375417.html
