中国货币政策目标制的选择——基于开放经济体的实证

发布时间：2018-12-15 06:59

【摘要】：本文使用开放经济下的新凯恩斯模型实证分析了开放经济体中不同的货币政策目标制。结果表明,面对国内利率政策、技术、国外通货膨胀、国外产出和国外实际利率冲击时,由灵活通货膨胀目标、资本自由流动和完全浮动的汇率构成的货币政策目标体系能够有效吸收冲击,减缓经济波动。相比而言,严格通胀目标制无法有效吸收国内外冲击,所以我国在开放经济下选择货币政策目标时,并不一定要选择严格通货膨胀目标,可以选择一些灵活通货膨胀目标的政策框架。此外,能够有效吸收各种冲击的灵活通胀目标、资本自由流动和完全浮动汇率制组成的目标体系也为我国货币政策和汇率制度改革提供了方向。
[Abstract]:Using the new Keynesian model in the open economy, this paper empirically analyzes the different monetary policy targeting systems in the open economy. The results show that in the face of domestic interest rate policy, technology, foreign inflation, foreign output and foreign real interest rate shocks, by flexible inflation targets, The monetary policy target system composed of free capital flow and completely floating exchange rate can absorb the shock effectively and slow down the economic fluctuation. In contrast, strict inflation targeting cannot effectively absorb domestic and foreign shocks. Therefore, when China chooses monetary policy targets under an open economy, it does not have to choose strict inflation targets. You can choose some flexible inflation target policy framework. In addition, the flexible inflation target which can absorb all kinds of shocks effectively, the target system composed of free capital flow and completely floating exchange rate system also provides the direction for China's monetary policy and exchange rate system reform.
【作者单位】：南京财经大学金融学院;南京财经大学金融学院金融研究中心;
【基金】：中国博士后科学基金一等资助项目《转型期开放经济下的货币政策操作方式研究》(20070420056);中国博士后科学基金首批特别资助项目《转型期开放经济下的货币政策规则研究》(200801143) 江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F822.0;F224

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