基于噪声甄别模型的我国FDI福利效应的差异性分析——来自1997-2009年的数据证据

发布时间：2018-12-18 04:55

【摘要】：运用含有噪声的甄别博弈模型,分析得出东道国在引资过程中需要结合自身情况和其他引资国的政策制定符合本国福利增进的引资分割点,且东道国引资优惠额度越大反而越有可能损害本国福利。在此基础上结合我国1997-2009年引进FDI数据进行实证分析得出:(1)整体FDI对我国福利效应的增加带来了积极作用,但FDI对收入福利指数的贡献较小,对生产福利指数贡献较大;(2)自2005年开始,制造行业FDI对我国福利增加的贡献率趋于减小且有恶化趋势;而处于农、林、牧、渔业和信息传输、计算机服务和软件行业的FDI对我国福利的贡献率却逐渐增加;(3)处于后危机时代的FDI在引资政策上更应该重视产业导向以提升FDI的正向福利效应。
[Abstract]:By using the screening game model with noise, it is concluded that the host country needs to combine its own situation with the policies of other countries in the process of attracting foreign investment, which is in line with the increase of its own welfare. The larger the host country's preferential amount of investment is, the more likely it is to damage the welfare of the country. Based on the empirical analysis of the FDI data from 1997 to 2009 in China, it is concluded that: (1) the overall FDI has a positive effect on the increase of welfare effect in China, but the contribution of FDI to the income welfare index is relatively small. Contribution to the production welfare index; (2) since 2005, the contribution rate of FDI in manufacturing industry to welfare increase in China tends to decrease and has a trend of deterioration; However, the contribution rate of FDI in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and information transmission, computer service and software industry to the welfare of our country is increasing gradually. (3) in the post-crisis era, FDI should pay more attention to the industrial orientation in order to promote the positive welfare effect of FDI.
【作者单位】：重庆大学贸易与行政学院;重庆大学经济与工商管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然基金项目(项目批准号:71073179):“防范“贫困化增长”:后危机时代FDI评价与优化机制研究”的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F224;F832.6

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