招商银行股份有限公司价值评估研究
发布时间：2019-01-05 09:46
【摘要】：企业价值评估自引入我国以来，经过多年的发展，逐渐形成了适合我国国情的评估方法体系，其应用范围也扩展到了投资决策领域；它的发展和完善，为投资者在证券市场上如何选择有价值的投资对象提供了一种理性的思路。招商银行股份有限公司（下文均简称：招商银行）由于其较高的盈利能力和发展潜力，一直受到投资者的关注和青睐；但自步入2012年以来，其股价表现欠佳，与投资者的心理期望较远。因此本文欲通过运用合适的企业价值评估方法来对招商银行的价值进行评估，进而判断其企业价值到底是多少，以及它的投资前景如何。 首先，本文在对企业价值评估的相关概念和基本理论进行概述的基础上，对企业价值评估中常使用的成本法（资产基础法）、市场法、收益法、经济增加值法和实物期权法进行了阐述和分析，进而根据商业银行的特殊性，，选取了经济增加值（EVA）法和市盈率法作为招商银行企业价值的评估方法。其次，在开始评估前本文先对影响招商银行企业价值的主要因素进行了分析，包括宏观经济环境的分析、银行业发展的分析和招商银行自身竞争力和财务状况的分析，为下文的预测和评估打下基础。再次，在以上分析的基础上本文展开了评估工作：在遵循EVA法评估程序和市场法评估程序的基础上，分别运用EVA法和市盈率法对招商银行的企业价值进行了评估；在比较分析以上两种评估方法的评估过程及结果的基础上最终得出了招商银行的企业价值评估结论。最后，本文对得出的招商银行企业价值评估结果进行了应用分析，即通过对招商银行投资风险的分析，来为投资者进行投资决策提供参考建议。 通过本文的评估，得出主要结论：（1）企业价值评估在投资领域将会越来越具有实用性，可以为投资者进行投资决策提供帮助；（2）招商银行当前的股票价格低于本文预测的股票价格区间，鉴于其较佳的盈利能力和发展潜力，建议投资者适机买入并持有该公司股票。
[Abstract]:Since it was introduced into China, after many years' development, the enterprise value evaluation has gradually formed the evaluation method system suitable for the national conditions of our country, and its application scope has also expanded to the investment decision-making field. Its development and perfection provide a rational way for investors to choose valuable investment objects in the securities market. China Merchants Bank Limited (hereinafter referred to as China Merchants Bank) has been concerned and favored by investors because of its high profitability and development potential; But since the start of 2012, its share price has underperformed, far from investors' psychological expectations. Therefore, this paper tries to evaluate the value of China Merchants Bank by using the appropriate method of enterprise value evaluation, and then determine the value of its enterprise value and its investment prospects. First of all, on the basis of summarizing the related concepts and basic theories of enterprise value evaluation, this paper discusses the cost method (asset base method), market method, income method, which are often used in enterprise value evaluation. The economic added value method and real option method are expounded and analyzed, and then according to the particularity of commercial banks, the economic added value (EVA) method and the price-earnings ratio method are selected as the evaluation methods of the enterprise value of China Merchants Bank. Secondly, this paper analyzes the main factors that affect the enterprise value of China Merchants Bank, including the analysis of macroeconomic environment, the development of banking industry, the competitiveness of China Merchants Bank and the financial situation of China Merchants Bank. To lay the foundation for the prediction and evaluation below. Thirdly, on the basis of the above analysis, this paper has carried out the evaluation work: on the basis of following the evaluation procedure of EVA method and market method, using EVA method and price-earnings ratio method to evaluate the enterprise value of China Merchants Bank; On the basis of comparing and analyzing the evaluation process and results of the above two evaluation methods, the conclusion of enterprise value evaluation of China Merchants Bank is obtained. Finally, this paper analyzes the value evaluation results of China Merchants Bank, that is, through the investment risk analysis of China Merchants Bank, to provide reference for investors to make investment decisions. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the evaluation of enterprise value will be more and more practical in the field of investment, which can help investors to make investment decisions; (2) the current stock price of China Merchants Bank is lower than the stock price range predicted in this paper. In view of its better profitability and development potential, investors are advised to buy and hold shares in the company.
【学位授予单位】：青岛理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F832.33
[Abstract]:Since it was introduced into China, after many years' development, the enterprise value evaluation has gradually formed the evaluation method system suitable for the national conditions of our country, and its application scope has also expanded to the investment decision-making field. Its development and perfection provide a rational way for investors to choose valuable investment objects in the securities market. China Merchants Bank Limited (hereinafter referred to as China Merchants Bank) has been concerned and favored by investors because of its high profitability and development potential; But since the start of 2012, its share price has underperformed, far from investors' psychological expectations. Therefore, this paper tries to evaluate the value of China Merchants Bank by using the appropriate method of enterprise value evaluation, and then determine the value of its enterprise value and its investment prospects. First of all, on the basis of summarizing the related concepts and basic theories of enterprise value evaluation, this paper discusses the cost method (asset base method), market method, income method, which are often used in enterprise value evaluation. The economic added value method and real option method are expounded and analyzed, and then according to the particularity of commercial banks, the economic added value (EVA) method and the price-earnings ratio method are selected as the evaluation methods of the enterprise value of China Merchants Bank. Secondly, this paper analyzes the main factors that affect the enterprise value of China Merchants Bank, including the analysis of macroeconomic environment, the development of banking industry, the competitiveness of China Merchants Bank and the financial situation of China Merchants Bank. To lay the foundation for the prediction and evaluation below. Thirdly, on the basis of the above analysis, this paper has carried out the evaluation work: on the basis of following the evaluation procedure of EVA method and market method, using EVA method and price-earnings ratio method to evaluate the enterprise value of China Merchants Bank; On the basis of comparing and analyzing the evaluation process and results of the above two evaluation methods, the conclusion of enterprise value evaluation of China Merchants Bank is obtained. Finally, this paper analyzes the value evaluation results of China Merchants Bank, that is, through the investment risk analysis of China Merchants Bank, to provide reference for investors to make investment decisions. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the evaluation of enterprise value will be more and more practical in the field of investment, which can help investors to make investment decisions; (2) the current stock price of China Merchants Bank is lower than the stock price range predicted in this paper. In view of its better profitability and development potential, investors are advised to buy and hold shares in the company.
【学位授予单位】：青岛理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F832.33
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 薛野,章之旺囿;价值评估与我国企业财务管理[J];地质技术经济管理;1999年04期
2 程婵娟;马U
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