外商直接投资与中国省域经济增长动态关系研究——基于1988～2008年省际面板数据的实证分析

发布时间：2019-01-07 09:33

【摘要】：国务院2010年"9号文"的公布表明我国已经开始逐步调整引进外资的政策,围绕这一文件政府、学界和外企都有各自不同的意见。本文以1988～2008年中国省际面板数据为基础,构建FDI率和经济增长率的面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,得出了以下结论:第一,从整体上看,中国经济的高增长率对外资有显著的吸引作用,外资对经济增长的正向促进作用并不显著。第二,1997年前后,中国经济增长率与FDI率之间的动态关系发生了结构性转变。第三,从区域上看,东部和中部省份的经济增长率与FDI率的动态关系较紧密,二者在西部省份的关系不显著。最后,FDI率目前在中国将长期稳定,2010年国务院9号文的出台不会给中国的FDI趋势造成显著的影响,也不会进而影响到经济增长率。
[Abstract]:The publication of the State Council's "document No. 9" in 2010 indicates that China has gradually adjusted its policy of introducing foreign capital. The government, academia and foreign enterprises have different opinions on this document. Based on the provincial panel data from 1988 to 2008, this paper constructs the panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model of FDI rate and economic growth rate, and draws the following conclusions: first, from the overall point of view, The high growth rate of China's economy has a significant attraction to foreign capital, but the positive effect of foreign capital on economic growth is not significant. Second, around 1997, the dynamic relationship between China's economic growth rate and FDI rate has undergone structural transformation. Thirdly, from a regional point of view, the economic growth rate of eastern and central provinces is closely related to the dynamic rate of FDI, but the relationship between them is not significant in western provinces. Finally, the FDI rate will remain stable in China for a long time. The introduction of State Council article 9 in 2010 will not have a significant impact on China's FDI trend, nor will it further affect economic growth.
【作者单位】：厦门大学王亚南经济研究院;厦门大学经济学院;
【基金】：教育部2010年度首届博士研究生学术新人奖资助项目厦门大学第七期优秀博士学位论文培育工程资助项目
【分类号】：F832.6;F127

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