人民币升值对我国出口企业的影响和对策研究

发布时间：2019-01-14 12:32

【摘要】：自2005年7月21日起，我国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。随着我国汇率制度的改革，人民币出现持续升值趋势。2005年7月，人民币对美元的交易价格为1美元兑8.11元人民币，此后，人民币不断升值。2008年4月10日，人民币兑美元开市价首次突破七算，正式迈入“6”时代。2012年10月，人民币对美元即期汇率，首度升破6.26。作为影响和决定出口型企业竞争力和利润高低的重要因素，人民币持续升值给出口企业带来无法回避的压力，在此背景下，研究出口企业如何应对人民币升值，就成为一个具有重要理论和实践意义的课题。基于上述考虑，本论文首先对近年来我国汇率制度的改革以及人民币升值的过程、现状、未来发展趋势以及原因予以分析，同时分析了人民升值对我国经济发展的影响，着重分析了人民币升值对我国出口企业的各个方面的影响，接下来文章用1981-2010年的中国汇率和出口贸易额的相关数据，采用单位根检验，Johansen协整分析和回归分析的方法来进行了实证研究，实证研究表明长期内人民币升值和我国对外贸易有显著相关性，人民币持续升值会对我国对外贸易的进一步发展带来压力和挑战。最后，，论文从政府的角度和企业的角度提出了我国出口企业如何趋利避害，积极调整发展战略，应对人民币升值趋势的对策。
[Abstract]:Since July 21, 2005, China began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies. With the reform of China's exchange rate regime, the RMB continues to appreciate. In July 2005, the RMB traded at 8.11 RMB to the US dollar, and since then, the RMB has continuously appreciated. The yuan officially entered a "6" era when it first broke through seven against the dollar. In October 2012, the renminbi rose above 6.26 for the first time against the dollar. As an important factor influencing and determining the competitiveness and profit of export-oriented enterprises, the continuous appreciation of RMB brings unavoidable pressure to export enterprises. Has become an important theoretical and practical significance of the subject. Based on the above considerations, this paper first analyzes the reform of China's exchange rate system and the process of RMB appreciation in recent years, the current situation, the future development trend and the reasons. At the same time, it analyzes the impact of the people's appreciation on the economic development of our country. This paper analyzes the impact of RMB appreciation on all aspects of China's export enterprises, and then uses the relevant data of China's exchange rate and export trade from 1981 to 2010 to adopt the unit root test. Johansen cointegration analysis and regression analysis are used to carry out empirical research. The empirical study shows that the appreciation of RMB has significant correlation with China's foreign trade in the long run. The continuous appreciation of RMB will bring pressure and challenge to the further development of China's foreign trade. Finally, from the angle of government and enterprise, the paper puts forward the countermeasures of how our export enterprises seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, adjust the development strategy actively, and deal with the trend of RMB appreciation.
【学位授予单位】：贵州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.62

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