中国储投缺口结构对经常项目顺差的影响

发布时间：2019-01-24 20:58

【摘要】：本文运用描述性统计、敏感性分析及因果关系检验方法,以1982～2009年的相关数据为样本,分析居民、企业、政府三个部门储蓄投资缺口结构与经常项目顺差的关系及部门储投缺口的影响因素。研究发现:经常项目顺差由高投资率背后更高的储蓄率造成,居民部门储投缺口贡献度最大,企业部门和政府部门储投缺口大部分年度为负;企业部门对经常项目变动决定作用最大,政府部门对经常项目顺差贡献最稳定;居民部门储投缺口变化主要取决于储蓄变化,过高的边际储蓄倾向是居民高储蓄的原因;2005年后企业储投缺口扩大源于储蓄占GDP比增加和投资占GDP比减少,劳动力成本增长速度过低和投资效率下降分别是储蓄比增加和投资比下降的原因;"以存量支"式的投资特征导致了政府储投缺口的稳定性。
[Abstract]:In this paper, descriptive statistics, sensitivity analysis and causality test are used to analyze residents, enterprises, and related data from 1982 to 2009. The relationship between the structure of savings and investment gap and the current account surplus in three government departments and the influencing factors of the gap. It is found that the current account surplus is caused by the higher savings rate behind the high investment rate, and the largest contribution is made by the gap between the reserve and investment of the resident sector, and the gap between the enterprise and government departments is negative in most years. The influence of enterprise sector on the change of current account is the most important, and the contribution of government departments to the surplus of current account is the most stable; the change of gap between reserve and investment in resident departments mainly depends on the change of savings, and the excessive marginal tendency of saving is the reason for the high savings of residents. After 2005, the expansion of the gap between savings and investment is due to the increase of the ratio of savings to GDP and the decrease of the ratio of investment to GDP. The low growth rate of labor costs and the decline of investment efficiency are respectively the reasons for the increase of savings ratio and the decrease of investment ratio. The investment characteristics of "stock support" lead to the stability of the gap between government's reserve and investment.
【作者单位】：复旦大学经济学院;
【基金】：《教育部人文社会科学研究2007年度一般项目》“管理浮动汇率制度与汇率调控”(项目批准号:07JA790105)的经费资助
【分类号】：F832.22

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