银行信贷对我国对外贸易的影响及机制

发布时间：2019-01-27 14:59

【摘要】：本文研究银行信贷对我国对外贸易的长期和短期影响机制。理论分析表明,银行信贷能够通过动员储蓄和优化资源配置两种方式扩大对外贸易规模并改善贸易结构,致使银行信贷与对外贸易之间存在长期均衡关系。本文采用边限协整检验方法和误差修正模型(ARDL-ECM),使用月度数据的实证分析验证了上述理论假说。本文研究发现,银行信贷对外贸的长短期影响存在差异:短期内存在抑制效应,通过加大金融支持力度改善对外贸易的政策存在超过三个季度的时滞;长期存在规模和结构上的促进效应。本文的发现有助于人们理解信贷政策对贸易的动态影响。经济危机后我国信贷扩张的效果和对外贸易的回暖时机与我们的理论预期一致。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the long-term and short-term influence mechanism of bank credit on China's foreign trade. The theoretical analysis shows that bank credit can expand the scale of foreign trade and improve the trade structure by mobilizing savings and optimizing the allocation of resources, resulting in a long-term equilibrium relationship between bank credit and foreign trade. In this paper, the method of margin cointegration test and error correction model (ARDL-ECM) are used to verify the theoretical hypothesis with the empirical analysis of monthly data. This paper finds that there are differences in the short- and long-term effects of bank credit on foreign trade: in the short term, there is a restraining effect, and the policy of improving foreign trade through increasing financial support has a delay of more than three quarters; Long-term promotion effects on scale and structure. The findings of this paper help people to understand the dynamic impact of credit policy on trade. After the economic crisis, the effect of China's credit expansion and the warming time of foreign trade are in line with our theoretical expectations.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院工业经济研究所;中山大学岭南学院;中山大学经济研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“地方政府官员对地区经济发展的影响及机制研究”(70803055) 教育部人文社会科学研究项目“我国初次分配中的收入差距与成因”(08JC790103);教育部人文社会科学研究项目“技术创新引导的多元化战略与企业可持续成长问题研究”(09YJC790267)
【分类号】：F832.4;F752.6

【参考文献】