基于搜寻模型的人民币国际化研究

发布时间：2019-02-15 07:54

【摘要】：当前,人民币国际化是我国金融战略的核心内容之一。我们认为,货币国际化在本质上就是一国货币的职能不断自国内向国外延伸的过程。我们应用了一种具备充分微观基础的理论框架——搜寻理论——来讨论货币的国际化问题。我们认为经济和贸易实力的相对大小,以及支撑个体跨国交易的便利性条件,是一国货币国际化的根本驱动因素。除此之外,时间成本、经济的专业化分工程度、币值变动和货币政策,以及各国国内交易摩擦将对货币国际化产生影响。我们也讨论了政府政策对一国货币国际化的潜在推动作用,并认为相对强大的国家或许能够通过政府政策在早期来推动该国货币国际化的进程。我们针对人民币在海外被接受程度的实证研究表明,在人民币走向海外的背后,经济贸易实力和交易的便利性条件——作为根本性的影响因素——持续在发挥作用。同时,我们也发现了不同的驱动因素在不同时期内对人民币国际化的影响并不完全一致。从长期来看,我们认为这些驱动一国货币国际化的根本性因素依然会在人民币的国际化中发挥作用。同时,我们认为中国仍应该大力推动和完善相应的政策安排,如跨境贸易人民币结算和RQFⅡ等。
[Abstract]:At present, RMB internationalization is one of the core contents of China's financial strategy. We believe that currency internationalization is essentially a process in which the function of a country's currency extends from home to abroad. We apply a theoretical framework with a full microscopic basis-search theory-to discuss currency internationalization. We believe that the relative size of economic and trade strength, as well as the convenience of supporting individual cross-border transactions, are the fundamental drivers of a country's currency internationalization. In addition, time cost, the degree of specialization of economy, currency change and monetary policy, as well as internal transaction friction will have an impact on currency internationalization. We also discussed the potential role of government policy in the internationalization of a country's currency, and believe that relatively powerful countries may be able to promote the process of currency internationalization in the early stages through government policies. Our empirical research on the acceptance of RMB overseas shows that behind the RMB going overseas, the economic and trade strength and the convenience of trading-as a fundamental influencing factor-continue to play a role. At the same time, we also find that different drivers have different influences on RMB internationalization in different periods. In the long run, we believe that these fundamental factors driving the internationalization of a country's currency will continue to play a role in the internationalization of the renminbi. At the same time, we believe that China should still vigorously promote and improve the corresponding policy arrangements, such as cross-border trade RMB settlement and RQF II.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6

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