我国通货膨胀压力估计与实际通货膨胀表现

发布时间：2019-03-23 19:39

【摘要】：首先对长期和短期内货币流通速度的不同决定因素进行区分,并论证在经济危机期间,心理和周期因素的影响将导致货币流通速度暂时下降,因而新增的货币流动性不会立即体现为现实的物价上涨;但随着货币流通速度向长期趋势回归,短期内积累的通货膨胀压力将会释放。通过带ARMA的时间趋势模型,利用1996年至2008年的季度数据,对2009年和2010年我国货币流通速度的长期值进行预测;并结合现实的M1、M2和GDP数据估计了我国的通货膨胀压力,计算了实际通货膨胀。结果表明:在2009年至2010年间,流动性增发导致的通货膨胀压力为40%左右,实际通货膨胀为11%左右,即29%的通货膨胀尚未得以释放。治理我国通货膨胀的方法应包括:当前应实行以信贷政策为主其他政策工具为辅的货币政策,以治理通货膨胀;在未来,要明确宣布并实施盯住货币增速的单一货币政策规则,并深化价格体系改革。
[Abstract]:First of all, we distinguish the different determinants of currency velocity in the long and short term, and demonstrate that during the economic crisis, the influence of psychological and cyclical factors will lead to a temporary decline in the velocity of currency circulation. As a result, the new currency liquidity will not immediately be reflected in the real price rise; But as currency flows return to long-term trends, inflationary pressures accumulate in the short term will be released. Through the time trend model with ARMA, using the quarterly data from 1996 to 2008, the paper forecasts the long-term value of currency circulation velocity in China in 2009 and 2010. Combined with the actual M1, M2 and GDP data, the inflationary pressure in China is estimated and the actual inflation is calculated. The results show that between 2009 and 2010, the inflationary pressure caused by liquidity increase was about 40%, and the real inflation was about 11%, that is, 29% inflation has not yet been released. The methods of controlling inflation in our country should include: at present, we should implement the monetary policy which is supplemented by credit policy and other policy tools, so as to control inflation; In the future, it is necessary to clearly announce and implement single monetary policy rules pegged to monetary growth, and deepen the reform of the price system.
【作者单位】：中山大学院岭南学院;中山大学岭南学院;
【基金】：全国优秀博士学位论文作者专项资金资助项目(200504) 国家社会科学基金项目(11BJL022) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2009) 广东省社科基金项目(GD10CYJ02)
【分类号】：F822.5;F224

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