中国实际负利率与高储蓄并存的原因与影响研究

发布时间：2019-03-25 11:38

【摘要】：利率政策是我国的一项重要的货币政策，银行通过调整利率等方式来调节货币供应量。同时，银行发展储蓄业务，在一定程度上可以促进国民经济比例和结构的调整，引导消费，聚集经济建设资金。一般情况下，利率降低会使储蓄减少，从而刺激投资，增强内需，带动国民经济的发展。因此，，如何利用利率政策调节一国的投资、储蓄和消费对宏观经济的运行有着重大意义。2008年全球金融危机爆发以来，我国一直处于实际负利率的情况，但是我国的居民存款储蓄余额却一直处于高位，并持续快速增加。本文关注中国实际负利率与高储蓄并存的现状，结合古典经济学和现代经济学相关理论，根据《中国统计年鉴》和《中国金融年鉴》公布的数据，应用EViews计量工具对我国的实际利率与储蓄的关系进行分析。本文通过研究发现，我国1978年~2011年的实际利率和居民储蓄存款增长率呈相反方向变动，实际利率的下降会引起储蓄增长率的提高。在此基础上，解释了我国近年来实际负利率和高储蓄并存的外部原因和内在因素，及其对国民经济运行和居民日常经济生活的影响，并提出缓解这种并存现状的可行性政策建议。本文认为必须通过健全我国金融市场体系和加强社会保障体系建设等政策配合，才能缓解我国的实际负利率和高储蓄并存的矛盾，消除其带来的不利影响。
[Abstract]:Interest rate policy is an important monetary policy in China. Banks regulate money supply by adjusting interest rate. At the same time, the development of savings business, to a certain extent, can promote the adjustment of the proportion and structure of the national economy, guide consumption, and gather funds for economic construction. In general, lower interest rates will reduce savings, thereby stimulating investment, enhancing domestic demand, and driving the development of the national economy. Therefore, how to use interest rate policy to regulate a country's investment, savings and consumption is of great significance to the operation of macro-economy. Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, China has been in the situation of real negative interest rates. However, the savings balance of residents in China has been in a high level, and continues to increase rapidly. This paper is concerned about the co-existence of real negative interest rate and high savings in China, combined with the relevant theories of classical economics and modern economics, and according to the data published in the China Statistical Yearbook and the China Financial Yearbook, The relationship between real interest rate and savings in China is analyzed by using EViews measurement tool. Through the research, it is found that the real interest rate and the growth rate of resident savings deposits in China change in the opposite direction from 1978 to 2011, and the decrease of real interest rate will lead to the increase of savings growth rate. On this basis, the paper explains the external causes and internal factors of the coexistence of real negative interest rate and high savings in China in recent years, and its influence on the operation of the national economy and the daily economic life of the residents. And put forward the feasibility policy recommendations to alleviate the co-existence of the current situation. This paper argues that only by perfecting the financial market system of our country and strengthening the construction of the social security system can the contradiction of the coexistence of the real negative interest rate and the high saving rate be alleviated and the adverse effects brought by it be eliminated.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.0;F832.22

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