政治与汇率:人民币升值的政治经济学分析

发布时间：2019-04-02 02:27

【摘要】：从国际政治经济学的角度对人民币汇率升值的争论进行解释或许更具有说服力。以此为分析视角,作者构建了以人民币对各国货币的汇率为被解释变量,以包括国际通货膨胀、经常账户余额以及外汇储备在内的经济变量为控制变量,以包括利益集团、选举周期、政党派系以及美国两院议案等在内的政治变量为主要解释变量的面板数据变系数模型,采用美国、日本、英国、德国和法国五个国家1995-2009年的相关数据进行实证分析,主要得出以下结论:首先,国际政治力量的干预使得人民币汇率变动有悖于经济运行的基本现实,因而存在着单向升值的悖论。其次,美国在人民币升值的进程中发挥着主导作用,其参众两院针对人民币汇率而提出的议案是人民币升值的直接导火线。最后,包括利益集团、选举周期和政党派系等因素在内的国际政治力量确实促进了人民币汇率的升值,同时也加快了人民币升值的进程。
[Abstract]:It may be more persuasive to explain the debate over the appreciation of the renminbi from the point of view of international political economics. From this point of view, the author constructs the exchange rate of RMB against national currencies as the explanatory variable, and the economic variables including international inflation, current account balance and foreign exchange reserves as the control variables, including interest groups. Political variables, such as election cycles, party factions, and bills in both houses of the United States and the United States, are the main explanatory variables of the panel data variation coefficient model, using the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Through empirical analysis of the relevant data from 1995 to 2009 in five countries, Germany and France, the following conclusions are drawn: firstly, the intervention of international political forces makes the change of RMB exchange rate contrary to the basic reality of economic operation. Therefore, there is a paradox of one-way appreciation. Secondly, the United States plays a leading role in the process of RMB appreciation, and the bills proposed by the Senate and the House of Representatives are the direct fuse of RMB appreciation. Finally, international political forces, including interest groups, election cycles and party factions, did promote the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and also accelerated the process of RMB appreciation.
【作者单位】：南京大学经济学院;
【基金】：江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(项目编号:CX10B_011R)的资助国家自然科学基金项目(项目编号:71073076) 国家社会科学基金一般项目(项目编号:09BJY001)、国家社会科学基金青年项目(项目编号:11CJL011)的联合资助
【分类号】：F832.6

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