后金融危机时代东亚美元本位模式考察

发布时间：2019-05-11 09:40

【摘要】：2008年的美国金融危机的爆发使得实施美元本位模式的东亚地区因此受到冲击,美元的地位受到人们的质疑,所以,对后金融危机时代东亚美元本位模式的研究对于东亚区域货币合作的未来走向和操作具有重要的理论意义。本文首先从汇率的低频和高频波动这两个角度考察东亚美元本位模式在美金融危机前后的表现程度,以及后金融危机时代它的发展趋势,进而通过加入"估值效应"和资产不完全替代的转移效应模型说明了东亚美元本位模式继续存在的内在机制,以及美元本位下的双重矛盾,指出后金融危机时代东亚美元本位模式的持续使得未来美国金融危机还有持续爆发的可能,研究表明,放弃美元本位后的均衡状态完全取决于放弃东亚美元本位的时间,越早放弃美元本位,东亚国家付出的成本越小。而替代东亚美元本位模式主要依靠"亚元模式"和"东亚人民币化"。
[Abstract]:The outbreak of the US financial crisis in 2008 hit East Asia, which implemented the dollar-based model, and the status of the US dollar was questioned. Therefore, The study of the East Asian dollar standard model in the post-financial crisis era is of great theoretical significance for the future trend and operation of regional monetary cooperation in East Asia. This paper first examines the performance of the East Asian dollar standard model before and after the US financial crisis from the perspective of low frequency and high frequency fluctuations of the exchange rate, as well as its development trend in the post-financial crisis era. Furthermore, by adding the "valuation effect" and the transfer effect model of incomplete substitution of assets, this paper explains the internal mechanism of the continuation of the dollar standard model in East Asia, as well as the double contradictions under the dollar standard. It is pointed out that the continuation of the East Asian dollar standard model in the post-financial crisis era makes it possible for the US financial crisis to continue to erupt in the future. the research shows that the equilibrium state after abandoning the US dollar standard depends entirely on the time of abandoning the East Asian dollar standard. The sooner the dollar standard is abandoned, the smaller the cost to East Asian countries. The replacement of the East Asian dollar standard model mainly depends on the Asian dollar model and the people's monetization in East Asia.
【作者单位】：东北师范大学经济学院;长春理工大学经济管理学院;
【分类号】：F833.1

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