金融摩擦视角下中国货币政策规则选择研究

发布时间：2019-05-20 03:14

【摘要】：经过30多年的改革开放，中国市场经济逐渐表现出两大特点：一是金融体系逐步得到建立和完善，资本市场得到了迅速发展，经济金融化程度不断提高，资产价格对实体经济的影响日益明显，金融加速器效用日益显著。二是中国经济开放度逐渐扩大，国外经济因素对中国经济影响力日益剧增。在此背景下，中央银行为了达到稳定物价水平、促进经济增长和就业、实现国际收支均衡等目标，应该采取何种货币政策规则？Friedman的单一货币规则，还是Taylor规则，还是采取已经被众多国家采取的通货膨胀目标制？货币政策规则应该将资产价格、汇率等因素纳入其中吗？为回答以上问题，本文共分为六个部分：第一章为绪论，阐述了选题的背景与意义，研究了金融摩擦和金融加速器的最新发展，分析了中国货币政策规则选择的相关争论。第二章是对货币政策规则的理论分析。通过规则与相机抉择之争的回顾，说明货币政策操作是可信度和灵活性之间的权衡。其中分别研究了货币政策工具规则和货币政策目标规则，前者主要包括Friedman规则、 Mccallum规则和Taylor规则，后者主要包括货币供应量目标制、汇率目标制和通货膨胀目标制，并比较了各自的优缺点。进一步讨论了金融摩擦条件下货币政策规则的相关争论。第三章借鉴BGG（1999）模型和Nolan and Thoenissen(2009)模型，构建了一个封闭经济下包含金融加速器的动态一般均衡框架，使这一框架包含了消费惯性、价格粘性、工资粘性和金融加速器等新凯恩斯货币经济学特征，为中国货币政策分析提供了分析框架。第四章为封闭经济模型的动态分析和货币政策规则比较。在借鉴现有文献和整理计算相关数据的基础上，对模型中相关参数进行校准，并在此基础上进行了货币政策比较分析。研究结果发现，单一规则优于Taylor规则。利率平滑有利于降低通货膨胀波动，但可能加大产出波动。货币政策对资产价格反应，大多数情况下是加大了产出和通货膨胀的波动。第五章将带金融加速器的动态一般均衡模型扩展到开放经济中，为汇率制度的比较创造了条件。研究发现，除了在技术冲击外，在其他冲击下，与固定汇率制相比，浮动汇率制度下通货膨胀和产出波动幅度要小一些。多数情况下，货币政策关注汇率波动，起到了加大通货膨胀和产出波动的效果。第六章为结论和建议。长期来看，中国应向通货膨胀目标制过渡。资产价格波动应由宏观审慎政策和其他政策调控。可尝试建立信息机制，减少信息不对称，以弱化金融加速器效应。
[Abstract]:After more than 30 years of reform and opening up, China's market economy has gradually shown two major characteristics: first, the financial system has been gradually established and improved, the capital market has been developed rapidly, and the degree of economic financialization has been continuously improved. The influence of asset price on the real economy is becoming more and more obvious, and the utility of financial accelerator is becoming more and more obvious. Second, China's economic openness is gradually expanding, and the influence of foreign economic factors on China's economy is increasing day by day. Under this background, in order to achieve the goal of stabilizing price level, promoting economic growth and employment, and achieving balance of payments, what kind of monetary policy rules should the central bank adopt? the single monetary rule of Friedman, or the Taylor rule, Or is it an inflation targeting system that has been adopted by many countries? Should monetary policy rules include asset prices, exchange rates and other factors? In order to answer the above questions, this paper is divided into six parts: the first chapter is the introduction, which expounds the background and significance of the topic, and studies the latest development of financial friction and financial accelerator. This paper analyzes the debate on the choice of monetary policy rules in China. The second chapter is the theoretical analysis of monetary policy rules. Through the review of the dispute between rules and choices, it is shown that monetary policy operation is a trade-off between credibility and flexibility. The monetary policy tool rules and monetary policy objective rules are studied respectively. the former mainly includes Friedman rules, Mccallum rules and Taylor rules, while the latter mainly includes money supply targeting, exchange rate targeting and inflation targeting. Their advantages and disadvantages are compared. Furthermore, the debate on the rules of monetary policy under the condition of financial friction is discussed. In the third chapter, based on BGG (1999) model and Nolan and Thoenissen (2009 model, a dynamic general equilibrium framework with financial accelerator in closed economy is constructed, which includes consumer inertia and price stickiness. The characteristics of new Keynesian monetary economics, such as wage stickiness and financial accelerator, provide an analytical framework for China's monetary policy analysis. The fourth chapter is the dynamic analysis of closed economic model and the comparison of monetary policy rules. On the basis of referring to the existing literature and sorting out the relevant data, the relevant parameters of the model are calibrated, and on this basis, the monetary policy is compared and analyzed. The results show that the single rule is superior to the Taylor rule. Smooth interest rates help reduce inflation volatility, but may increase output volatility. Monetary policy responds to asset prices, in most cases by increasing volatility in output and inflation. In the fifth chapter, the dynamic general equilibrium model with financial accelerator is extended to the open economy, which creates the conditions for the comparison of exchange rate regime. It is found that, in addition to the technical shock, under other shocks, compared with the fixed exchange rate system, the fluctuation range of inflation and output under the floating exchange rate system is smaller. In most cases, monetary policy focuses on exchange rate fluctuations, increasing inflation and output volatility. The sixth chapter is the conclusion and suggestion. In the long run, China should transition to inflation targeting. Asset price volatility should be regulated by macroprudential policies and other policies. We can try to establish information mechanism to reduce information asymmetry in order to weaken the financial accelerator effect.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.0;F832

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