人民币兑美元升值对我国服装对美贸易的影响
发布时间：2019-07-08 14:28
【摘要】：服装业作为我国传统支柱性的产业，对我国的国民收入、出口创汇以及国内就业有着非常重大的影响。目前，我国服装出口正面临着劳动力成本上涨、原材料国内外价差拉大、国外贸易壁垒越来越多以及人民币持续升值等多重压力。然而人民币升值对我国服装出口究竟有没有负面影响一直是一个不确定的问题。 本文从两个角度分析人民币兑美元升值对我国服装对美贸易的影响。从弹性的角度，本文利用C-D函数模型选取2009-2012年的季度数据计算出中国服装对美国的出口弹性值为2.3，满足马歇尔-勒那条件，得出人民币兑美元升值会对我国服装对美出口有不利影响；从汇率的角度，本文利用了向量自回归模型分别选取了2000-2012和2005-2012年的季度数据得出人民币兑美元升值对我国服装对美贸易的差额是有负面影响，但是在汇率制度改革之后，汇率对中美服装贸易差额的冲击影响大大减弱，只有0.33个百分点，是汇率改革之前的十分之一，即人民币兑美元升值对中美服装贸易差额虽然有负面影响，但是影响微弱；同时也发现我国服装对外依存度很高，汇率改革前后对外依存度均高达50%；中美两国的国民收入对中美服装贸易差额的影响在汇率改革之后增强，分别从原来的从原来的0.5和1.1个百分点上升到1.6个和1.8个百分点，远远高于汇率的冲击影响。 最后本文对政府和企业提出建议，，希望政府从更高层面上调整产业结构，扩大内需，促进服装的产业链升级，为服装行业创造良好的内外部环境；希望企业转变管理理念，从技术和品牌上着手，加强企业间合作，合理分配资源，打造出更多一流的品牌。
[Abstract]:As a traditional industry in our country, the garment industry has a very important influence on our national income, foreign exchange and domestic employment. At present, China's clothing export is facing multiple pressures such as the rising of the labor cost, the widening of the spread of raw materials at home and abroad, the increasing number of foreign trade barriers and the continuous appreciation of the RMB. However, the negative impact of the appreciation of the RMB on China's clothing exports has been an uncertain problem. This paper analyses the reflection of the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar against the U.S. dollar against the US dollar from two angles In response, from the angle of elasticity, this paper uses the C-D function model to select the quarterly data from 2009 to 2012 to calculate the export elasticity value of Chinese clothing to the United States, and to meet the conditions of the Marshall-Le, it is concluded that the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar will have a negative effect on the export of Chinese clothing to the US; from the angle of the exchange rate In this paper, we use the vector autoregressive model to select the quarterly data of 2000-2012 and 2005-2012, which has a negative effect on the difference between China's clothing and the US trade, but after the reform of the exchange rate system, the impact of the exchange rate on the trade balance between China and the United States is greatly reduced. The weak, only 0.33 percentage points, is one-tenth of the exchange rate reform, that is, the appreciation of the RMB against the United States dollar has a negative impact on the trade balance between China and the United States, but the impact is weak; at the same time, it is also found that China's clothing has a high degree of foreign trade, and the foreign exchange rate before and after the exchange rate reform is as high as 50 The impact of national income on the trade balance between China and the United States has increased after exchange rate reform, from the original 0.5 and 1.1 percentage points to 1.6 and 1.8 percentage points, far higher than the impact of the exchange rate In the end, the paper makes a suggestion to the government and the enterprise, and it is hoped that the government will adjust the industrial structure from the higher level, expand the domestic demand, promote the upgrade of the industrial chain of the clothing, create a good internal and external environment for the clothing industry, hope the enterprise to change the management idea, from the technology and the brand Let's start with, strengthen the cooperation between enterprises, allocate resources reasonably, and make more top-class
【学位授予单位】：江苏科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.7;F832.6
本文编号：2511654
[Abstract]:As a traditional industry in our country, the garment industry has a very important influence on our national income, foreign exchange and domestic employment. At present, China's clothing export is facing multiple pressures such as the rising of the labor cost, the widening of the spread of raw materials at home and abroad, the increasing number of foreign trade barriers and the continuous appreciation of the RMB. However, the negative impact of the appreciation of the RMB on China's clothing exports has been an uncertain problem. This paper analyses the reflection of the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar against the U.S. dollar against the US dollar from two angles In response, from the angle of elasticity, this paper uses the C-D function model to select the quarterly data from 2009 to 2012 to calculate the export elasticity value of Chinese clothing to the United States, and to meet the conditions of the Marshall-Le, it is concluded that the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar will have a negative effect on the export of Chinese clothing to the US; from the angle of the exchange rate In this paper, we use the vector autoregressive model to select the quarterly data of 2000-2012 and 2005-2012, which has a negative effect on the difference between China's clothing and the US trade, but after the reform of the exchange rate system, the impact of the exchange rate on the trade balance between China and the United States is greatly reduced. The weak, only 0.33 percentage points, is one-tenth of the exchange rate reform, that is, the appreciation of the RMB against the United States dollar has a negative impact on the trade balance between China and the United States, but the impact is weak; at the same time, it is also found that China's clothing has a high degree of foreign trade, and the foreign exchange rate before and after the exchange rate reform is as high as 50 The impact of national income on the trade balance between China and the United States has increased after exchange rate reform, from the original 0.5 and 1.1 percentage points to 1.6 and 1.8 percentage points, far higher than the impact of the exchange rate In the end, the paper makes a suggestion to the government and the enterprise, and it is hoped that the government will adjust the industrial structure from the higher level, expand the domestic demand, promote the upgrade of the industrial chain of the clothing, create a good internal and external environment for the clothing industry, hope the enterprise to change the management idea, from the technology and the brand Let's start with, strengthen the cooperation between enterprises, allocate resources reasonably, and make more top-class
【学位授予单位】：江苏科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.7;F832.6
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