香港联系汇率制度港元挂钩人民币合理性研究
发布时间：2019-07-09 17:31
【摘要】：中国香港是世界金融中心之一,实行联系汇率制度至今已经整整30年了。自从联系汇率制度实施以来,香港金融管理局为了适应全球经济形势的变化而陆续推行的多项货币改革措施使其内容逐步完善起来,联系汇率制度的运作更加高效,抵御外来冲击的能力更加强大,在三十年间经受住了一系列风雨与考验。然而,30年后的今天,香港所处的内外环境与制度实施之初相比发生了巨大的变化,尤其香港与内地的经贸以及人员往来越来越紧密,经济融合程度越来越深,同时对内地的依赖程度也越来越强,两地经济的紧密性、互动性已经超过了与美国之间的经济联系。因此,如何审视与优化香港的汇率制度,不仅对其经济的稳定繁荣起着关键作用,而且对未来政策的制定与实施具有重要意义。同时,香港是中国经济国际化的桥头堡,其汇率制度的改善与内地的利益息息相关,对于人民币未来区域化、国际化发展战略的实施同样具有深刻影响。 香港的联系汇率制度无疑是历史的产物,是发挥过很大功效并处于接受市场检验阶段的汇率制度创新。不可否认,联系汇率制的实施为保证香港经济社会稳定做出了重要贡献,但是,香港在面对内外部经济和金融发展中不断提出的新问题时,需要在具体措施和技术层面上进行不断地改进和完善,增强适应性和灵活性,使其真正成为稳定币值、稳定金融体系的核心与基石。所以,本文从回顾19世纪中叶以来香港货币汇率制度的发展历史入手,在介绍香港联系汇率制度内涵及运作的基础上,分析了香港实行联系汇率制度的适宜性,着重深入研究港元挂钩人民币的合理性,但鉴于目前立刻将二者挂钩的条件并不成熟,现阶段需要继续推动两地的贸易交流及经济发展,努力营造一个适宜港元与人民币挂钩的宏观经济环境。本文采用理论定性分析香港实行联系汇率制度的适宜性,并利用相关数据进行阐释,深入分析了港元挂钩人民币的合理性、港元挂钩人民币的阻碍因素以及应该努力营造一个适宜港元与人民币挂钩的宏观经济环境。同时,又以计量手段进行了严格的实证定量分析。通过建立VAR模型应用Johansen协整检验方法对其进行协整检验,从而表明香港与内地的产出水平存在长期均衡关系,两地经济周期在长期内具有共同趋势；又利用VAR模型提供的脉冲响应函数等方法,实证分析香港和内地各自CPI增长率的变动对其GDP的影响,从而观察两地的动态冲击效应是否对称。本文还结合直观的对比分析,首先比较了香港与美国、中国内地的经济增长相关系数,香港与美国的相关系数趋于下降,而与中国内地的相关系数处于较高水平,对比分析表明了香港与美国的经济联系程度总体呈下降趋势,与内地的经济联系程度日益紧密。然后,对比香港与美国、中国内地的消费物价指数增长率变化状况,分析看出内地物价的上升对香港物价变动的影响越来越大。 本文提出了港元与人民币挂钩具有合理性,并结合香港内外环境特点及其变化,通过运用各种分析方法对其进行论证,最后提出应该营造适宜港元挂钩人民币的经济环境。运用简洁易懂的语言表述介绍香港货币汇率制度的发展历史、联系汇率制度的内涵及运作,不做晦涩难懂的赘述,而为下文深入分析港元应与人民币挂钩做好铺垫。同时,结合香港内部经济、外部环境及与内地贸易交流等实际状况对港元应挂钩人民币进行深入分析,而不是单纯地就联系汇率制本身的优劣进行判断。文中就香港与中国内地、美国的经贸联系等进行对比分析,使论证更具说服力。本文注重理论分析与实证分析相结合,理论分析具有逻辑辩证性,同时收集相关数据进行清晰明了的数字佐证：实证分析中充分利用多元分析软件,使研究更加科学精准。为了力使全篇没有纯文字叙述的苍白无力之感,亦没有单纯实证分析的繁杂难解之困,而将多种分析方法结合运用,深入论证港元应与人民币挂钩这一主题。在深入论证港元应与人民币挂钩合理性的同时,也注重运用辩证思维阐述目前仍存在港元挂钩人民币的阻碍因素,符合实事求是原则,并提出应该努力营造一个适宜港元与人民币挂钩的宏观经济环境。
[Abstract]:Hong Kong, China, is one of the world's financial centres and has been in place for 30 years. Since the implementation of the linked exchange rate system, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has gradually improved its contents in order to adapt to the changes of the global economic situation, and the linked exchange rate system is more efficient and more powerful to resist external shocks, A series of weather and test have been experienced in three decades. However, in the past 30 years, the internal and external environment of Hong Kong has changed greatly compared with the beginning of the system. In particular, the economic and trade ties between Hong Kong and the Mainland have become more and more closely, the degree of economic integration is becoming more and more deep, and the dependence on the Mainland is becoming more and more strong. The economic tightness of the two places has exceeded the economic ties with the United States. Therefore, how to look at and optimize the Hong Kong exchange rate system not only plays a key role in the stability and prosperity of its economy, but also has an important significance to the formulation and implementation of the future policy. At the same time, Hong Kong is the bridgehead of China's economic internationalization, and the improvement of its exchange rate system is closely related to the interests of the mainland, and has a profound impact on the future regionalization of the RMB and the implementation of the international development strategy. The exchange rate system in Hong Kong is no doubt the product of history. It is the exchange rate system which has a great effect and is in the stage of receiving the market inspection. New. There is no denying that the implementation of the linked exchange rate system has made an important contribution to ensuring the stability of Hong Kong's economic and social stability. However, in the face of the new problems of the internal and external economic and financial development, Hong Kong needs to make continuous improvement and completion at the specific measures and technical level The core and the foundation of a stable, stable financial system that is good, adaptive, and flexible. This paper, based on the review of the development history of Hong Kong's currency exchange rate system since the mid-19th century, analyzes the suitability of Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system based on the introduction of the connotation and operation of the Hong Kong currency exchange rate system. However, in view of the fact that the conditions for linking the two are not mature at this time, it is necessary to continue to promote the exchange of trade and economic development between the two places, and strive to create a macroeconomic ring that is suitable for linking the Hong Kong dollar and the RMB The paper uses the theory to make a qualitative analysis of the suitability of the exchange rate system in Hong Kong, and makes an analysis of the relevant data, and deeply analyses the reasonable value of the Hong Kong dollar peg. The impediments to the Hong Kong dollar peg to the currency and the efforts to create a macroeconomic ring that is appropriate for the Hong Kong dollar to be linked to the currency At the same time, the strict empirical and quantitative analysis is carried out by means of measurement. The co-integration test is carried out by using the Johansen co-integration test method to show the long-term equilibrium relationship between Hong Kong and the Mainland, and the economic cycle of the two places has a common trend in the long term, and the impulse response function provided by the VAR model The effect of the changes in the growth rate of the CPI in Hong Kong and the Mainland on the GDP of Hong Kong and the Mainland is analyzed by means of the method, so as to observe whether the dynamic impact effect of the two places is correct. The correlation coefficient between Hong Kong and the United States is lower, and the correlation coefficient between Hong Kong and the United States is lower, and the correlation coefficient between Hong Kong and the United States is at a higher level. The comparative analysis shows that the economic relation between Hong Kong and the United States is generally decreasing, and the degree of economic contact with the Mainland is becoming more and more tight. in contrast to that change in the growth rate of the consumer price index in Hong Kong and the United states and China, the analysis shows that the rise in prices in the mainland has an increasing impact on Hong Kong's price change This paper puts forward the rationality of the link between the Hong Kong dollar and the RMB, and combines the internal and external environmental characteristics and the changes of the Hong Kong dollar. The development history of the Hong Kong currency exchange rate system, the connotation and operation of the linked exchange rate system are introduced in a simple and understandable language statement, and the detailed description will not be made. In order to carry out an in-depth analysis below, the Hong Kong dollar should be linked with the RMB In that meantime, the Hong Kong dollar should be subject to an in-depth analysis of the Hong Kong dollar in the light of the real situation of Hong Kong's internal economy, the external environment and the exchange of trade with the mainland. The paper makes a comparative analysis of the economic and trade links between Hong Kong and the mainland and the United States, making the demonstration more This paper is based on the combination of the theoretical analysis and the empirical analysis, and the theoretical analysis has the logical and dialectical nature, and the relevant data is collected for clear and clear digital support: the multivariate analysis software is fully utilized in the empirical analysis, so that the research is more comprehensive. The study is accurate. In order to make the whole article have no sense of the pale and weak of the pure text, there is no complicated and difficult solution of the simple empirical analysis, and a variety of analytical methods are used in combination, and the in-depth demonstration that the Hong Kong dollar should be linked with the RMB On the subject, while in-depth demonstration that the Hong Kong dollar should be linked to the RMB, it also focuses on the use of dialectical thinking to explain the current obstacles to the Hong Kong dollar-linked RMB, which is in line with the principle of seeking truth from facts, and proposes that efforts should be made to create a macro-scale of the link between the Hong Kong dollar and the RMB
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6
本文编号：2512314
[Abstract]:Hong Kong, China, is one of the world's financial centres and has been in place for 30 years. Since the implementation of the linked exchange rate system, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has gradually improved its contents in order to adapt to the changes of the global economic situation, and the linked exchange rate system is more efficient and more powerful to resist external shocks, A series of weather and test have been experienced in three decades. However, in the past 30 years, the internal and external environment of Hong Kong has changed greatly compared with the beginning of the system. In particular, the economic and trade ties between Hong Kong and the Mainland have become more and more closely, the degree of economic integration is becoming more and more deep, and the dependence on the Mainland is becoming more and more strong. The economic tightness of the two places has exceeded the economic ties with the United States. Therefore, how to look at and optimize the Hong Kong exchange rate system not only plays a key role in the stability and prosperity of its economy, but also has an important significance to the formulation and implementation of the future policy. At the same time, Hong Kong is the bridgehead of China's economic internationalization, and the improvement of its exchange rate system is closely related to the interests of the mainland, and has a profound impact on the future regionalization of the RMB and the implementation of the international development strategy. The exchange rate system in Hong Kong is no doubt the product of history. It is the exchange rate system which has a great effect and is in the stage of receiving the market inspection. New. There is no denying that the implementation of the linked exchange rate system has made an important contribution to ensuring the stability of Hong Kong's economic and social stability. However, in the face of the new problems of the internal and external economic and financial development, Hong Kong needs to make continuous improvement and completion at the specific measures and technical level The core and the foundation of a stable, stable financial system that is good, adaptive, and flexible. This paper, based on the review of the development history of Hong Kong's currency exchange rate system since the mid-19th century, analyzes the suitability of Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system based on the introduction of the connotation and operation of the Hong Kong currency exchange rate system. However, in view of the fact that the conditions for linking the two are not mature at this time, it is necessary to continue to promote the exchange of trade and economic development between the two places, and strive to create a macroeconomic ring that is suitable for linking the Hong Kong dollar and the RMB The paper uses the theory to make a qualitative analysis of the suitability of the exchange rate system in Hong Kong, and makes an analysis of the relevant data, and deeply analyses the reasonable value of the Hong Kong dollar peg. The impediments to the Hong Kong dollar peg to the currency and the efforts to create a macroeconomic ring that is appropriate for the Hong Kong dollar to be linked to the currency At the same time, the strict empirical and quantitative analysis is carried out by means of measurement. The co-integration test is carried out by using the Johansen co-integration test method to show the long-term equilibrium relationship between Hong Kong and the Mainland, and the economic cycle of the two places has a common trend in the long term, and the impulse response function provided by the VAR model The effect of the changes in the growth rate of the CPI in Hong Kong and the Mainland on the GDP of Hong Kong and the Mainland is analyzed by means of the method, so as to observe whether the dynamic impact effect of the two places is correct. The correlation coefficient between Hong Kong and the United States is lower, and the correlation coefficient between Hong Kong and the United States is lower, and the correlation coefficient between Hong Kong and the United States is at a higher level. The comparative analysis shows that the economic relation between Hong Kong and the United States is generally decreasing, and the degree of economic contact with the Mainland is becoming more and more tight. in contrast to that change in the growth rate of the consumer price index in Hong Kong and the United states and China, the analysis shows that the rise in prices in the mainland has an increasing impact on Hong Kong's price change This paper puts forward the rationality of the link between the Hong Kong dollar and the RMB, and combines the internal and external environmental characteristics and the changes of the Hong Kong dollar. The development history of the Hong Kong currency exchange rate system, the connotation and operation of the linked exchange rate system are introduced in a simple and understandable language statement, and the detailed description will not be made. In order to carry out an in-depth analysis below, the Hong Kong dollar should be linked with the RMB In that meantime, the Hong Kong dollar should be subject to an in-depth analysis of the Hong Kong dollar in the light of the real situation of Hong Kong's internal economy, the external environment and the exchange of trade with the mainland. The paper makes a comparative analysis of the economic and trade links between Hong Kong and the mainland and the United States, making the demonstration more This paper is based on the combination of the theoretical analysis and the empirical analysis, and the theoretical analysis has the logical and dialectical nature, and the relevant data is collected for clear and clear digital support: the multivariate analysis software is fully utilized in the empirical analysis, so that the research is more comprehensive. The study is accurate. In order to make the whole article have no sense of the pale and weak of the pure text, there is no complicated and difficult solution of the simple empirical analysis, and a variety of analytical methods are used in combination, and the in-depth demonstration that the Hong Kong dollar should be linked with the RMB On the subject, while in-depth demonstration that the Hong Kong dollar should be linked to the RMB, it also focuses on the use of dialectical thinking to explain the current obstacles to the Hong Kong dollar-linked RMB, which is in line with the principle of seeking truth from facts, and proposes that efforts should be made to create a macro-scale of the link between the Hong Kong dollar and the RMB
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6
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