灵江大桥风险评估体系、方法及应用研究

发布时间：2018-06-24 18:34

本文选题：桥梁工程 + 风险分析　；参考：《浙江大学》2010年硕士论文

【摘要】： 桥梁工程的基本特点是投资巨大、技术复杂、工程涉及面广、工程寿命周期长、一旦发生事故又影响重大。桥梁工程从立项到长期运营过程中都存在着各种难以预料的因素,工程建设中发生失败、失策对经济建设都将会带来不可估量的损失。建立桥梁工程风险评估体制,研究其风险评估理论、方法和管理规程,并对工程项目的各阶段展开风险评估,将有助于完善桥梁建设管理体制,制定应对桥梁风险的有效措施,以期达到以最小的成本获得工程最大的安全保障。本文以台缙高速东延段灵江大桥建设工程为背景,分析桥梁从建设方案论证阶段到运营期间各典型风险事态的风险因素组成,利用定性方法进行风险识别,列出风险清单。对识别后的风险做进一步分析,采用定性和定量两类方法,利用模糊综合评价方法,建立风险损失模型和风险概率模型。提出风险概率等级标准、风险损失等级标准以及风险评价矩阵。通过风险概率和风险损失的计算获得对桥梁风险事态的估计。在成桥前期阶段,桥梁方案设计的选择受到桥梁所处位置自然环境、经济性以及施工工艺复杂程度等因素的影响,其风险也是不同的。因此,通过灵江大桥的设计风险分析,从预应力混凝土连续梁桥、矮塔斜拉桥和独塔斜拉桥三个方案中选取了结构设计合理、风险相对合理的矮塔斜拉桥方案。在此基础上,对其投资风险进行了分析,并提出设计风险和投资风险的控制措施。在施工阶段,下部结构施工方案的选择受到施工现场的通航、地质水文、气候及施工条件等因素的影响。本文拟定双壁钢围堰结合混凝土拌合船和搭设栈桥两种下部结构的施工方案,对其各自的施工风险进行识别和分析,选定施工风险相对较小、费用稍高、结构稳固、施工抵御台风及抗潮汐能力强的栈桥施工方案。在运营阶段,考虑到灵江船运比较繁忙的通航状况,着重分析比较目前使用比较广泛的几个船撞桥的模型,提出采用AASHTO模型来对灵江大桥进行船撞风险分析,结果表明尽管船撞的风险较低,但还是应该采取降低船撞风险的措施加以改进。论文还在最后综合概括桥梁工程建设风险管理的目标、内容、策略、流程等基础上,初步编制提出了桥梁工程建设风险管理的规程,可供有关部门参考。
[Abstract]:The basic characteristics of bridge engineering are huge investment, complex technology, wide scope of engineering, long life cycle of engineering, and great influence once accidents occur. There are all kinds of unpredictable factors in the process of bridge engineering from the establishment of project to the long-term operation. The failure of engineering construction will bring incalculable losses to the economic construction. Establishing a bridge engineering risk assessment system, studying its risk assessment theory, methods and management rules, and carrying out risk assessment for each stage of the project will help to perfect the bridge construction management system and formulate effective measures to deal with the bridge risk. In order to achieve the minimum cost of the project to obtain the maximum security. Based on the construction project of Taijin Expressway East Yanduanling River Bridge, this paper analyzes the risk factors of each typical risk situation of the bridge from the stage of construction plan demonstration to the period of operation, and uses qualitative method to identify the risk and make out the risk list. Further analysis is made on the risk after identification. The risk loss model and the risk probability model are established by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the qualitative and quantitative methods. The risk probability grade standard, risk loss grade standard and risk evaluation matrix are put forward. The risk state of the bridge is estimated by the calculation of risk probability and risk loss. In the early stage of bridge construction, the selection of bridge scheme design is influenced by the natural environment, economy and the complexity of construction technology, and the risk is different. Therefore, through the design risk analysis of Lingjiang Bridge, three schemes of prestressed concrete continuous girder bridge, low tower cable-stayed bridge and single tower cable-stayed bridge are selected, which have reasonable structural design and relatively reasonable risk. On this basis, the investment risk is analyzed, and the control measures of design risk and investment risk are put forward. In the construction stage, the selection of the substructure construction scheme is affected by the navigation, geological hydrology, climate and construction conditions of the construction site. In this paper, the construction scheme of two kinds of substructure of double wall steel cofferdam combined with concrete mixing ship and erecting trestle is drawn up. The construction risks are identified and analyzed. The construction risk is relatively small, the cost is slightly higher, and the structure is stable. The construction plan of trestle bridge with strong ability to resist typhoon and tide. In the operation phase, considering the busy navigation conditions of the Lingjiang River, this paper focuses on the analysis and comparison of several ship collision models which are widely used at present, and proposes to use the AASHTO model to analyze the ship collision risk of the Lingjiang Bridge. The results show that although the risk of ship collision is low, some measures should be taken to reduce the risk of collision. Finally, on the basis of synthetically summarizing the objectives, contents, strategies and processes of risk management of bridge engineering construction, the paper puts forward the regulations of risk management of bridge engineering construction preliminarily, which can be used as reference for relevant departments.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：U448.27

【引证文献】