美国主流智库对“一带一路”战略的认知探析
发布时间：2018-07-13 08:32
【摘要】：2013年9-10月,习近平主席出访哈萨克斯坦和印度尼西亚,先后提出了"丝绸之路经济带"和"21世纪海上丝绸之路"(简称"一带一路")倡议,并成为中国的一项国家战略。中美关系是21世纪最复杂、最关键的大国关系。作为全球最发达、最具话语权的政治国家—美国如何看待"一带一路"战略,将在一定程度上影响沿线国家的态度和认知,进而影响该战略未来的推进与实施。虽然美国官方针对"一带一路"战略做出的明确回应较少,但我们可以通过对具有美国政治决策"外脑"之称的智库中学者观点进行分析,进而从一定程度上探知美国官方态度。美国智库在外交政策制定中占据着举足轻重的地位,其一方面通过"旋转门"机制向政府输送官员来直接影响对外政治决策,另一方面通过大众媒体宣传、举办研讨会等方式来引导社会舆论和思潮,间接影响政府决策。布鲁金斯学会、卡内基国际和平基金会、传统基金会以及美国进步中心是美国较为著名的智库,同时拥有研究中国的权威专家,观点十分具有典型性和代表性。本文选取这四个主流智库2015年至今在官方网站的评论文章、引用文段等作为分析样本,梳理和搭建了主流智库学者们对"一带一路"战略的认知框架,在此基础上,从中美对比视角总结出美国主流智库对"一带一路"战略的总体评判,并试图挖掘出未来美国政府对"一带一路"战略可能采取的政策。整体上来看,美国智库中虽然存在一些理性、客观的看法,但更多的是对中国实施这一战略的动机表示怀疑,认为"一带一路"战略有助于提升中国国际影响力,引发中美展开竞争,对美国在亚太地区的主导地位带来挑战。在应对上,短期之内美国或许仍采取观望的态度,但长期来看更倾向于约束、制衡甚至是破坏中国这一战略的进展与实施。美国暂时的观望恰好为中国留出了行动空间与时间。目前中国不仅要通过现有的双边或多边机制来和美国进一步沟通交流、增信释疑,更应该采取一些具体的措施来加强中美合作,同时增加美国干涉或影响"一带一路"战略的难度,积极推进"一带一路"战略的实施。
[Abstract]:In September and October 2013, President Xi Jinping visited Kazakhstan and Indonesia, where he put forward the "Silk Road Economic Belt" and the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" ("Belt and Road") initiative, which became a national strategy of China. The relationship between China and the United States is the most complicated and crucial one in the 21 st century. As the most developed and powerful political country in the world, how the United States views the "Belt and Road" strategy will influence the attitude and cognition of the countries along the route to a certain extent, and then affect the future promotion and implementation of the strategy. Although the US authorities have given less explicit response to the "Belt and Road" strategy, we can analyze the views of scholars in a think-tank known as the "outside brain" of American political decision-making. Then, to some extent, the official attitude of the United States was explored. American think-tanks play an important role in the formulation of foreign policy. On the one hand, they directly influence foreign political decisions through the "revolving door" mechanism, and on the other hand, they propagate through the mass media. Hold seminars and other ways to guide public opinion and trends of thought, indirectly affect government decisions. The Brookings Institution, the Carnegie Foundation for International Peace, the Heritage Foundation and the American Progressive Center are famous American think-tanks with authoritative experts on China. This paper selects the review articles of the four mainstream think-tanks from 2015 to present on the official website, quoting paragraphs and so on, as analysis samples, combs and builds the cognitive framework of the "Belt and Road" strategy of mainstream think-tank scholars, and on this basis, This paper sums up the overall judgment of "Belt and Road" strategy by American mainstream think-tank from the perspective of Sino-American comparison, and tries to find out the possible policies that the American government may adopt to "Belt and Road" strategy in the future. On the whole, although there are some rational and objective views in the US think-tank, they are more sceptical about China's motivation to implement this strategy, and believe that the "Belt and Road" strategy is conducive to enhancing China's international influence. The competition between China and the United States brings challenges to America's leading position in the Asia-Pacific region. In the short term, the United States may still be taking a wait-and-see approach, but in the long run it prefers to constrain, counterbalance or even undermine the progress and implementation of China's strategy. America's temporary wait-and-see just leaves China with room and time to act. At present, China not only needs to further communicate and exchange with the United States through existing bilateral or multilateral mechanisms, but also should take some concrete measures to strengthen Sino-US cooperation. At the same time, it makes it more difficult for the United States to interfere or influence the "Belt and Road" strategy, and actively promotes the implementation of the "Belt and Road" strategy.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C932
本文编号：2118788
[Abstract]:In September and October 2013, President Xi Jinping visited Kazakhstan and Indonesia, where he put forward the "Silk Road Economic Belt" and the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" ("Belt and Road") initiative, which became a national strategy of China. The relationship between China and the United States is the most complicated and crucial one in the 21 st century. As the most developed and powerful political country in the world, how the United States views the "Belt and Road" strategy will influence the attitude and cognition of the countries along the route to a certain extent, and then affect the future promotion and implementation of the strategy. Although the US authorities have given less explicit response to the "Belt and Road" strategy, we can analyze the views of scholars in a think-tank known as the "outside brain" of American political decision-making. Then, to some extent, the official attitude of the United States was explored. American think-tanks play an important role in the formulation of foreign policy. On the one hand, they directly influence foreign political decisions through the "revolving door" mechanism, and on the other hand, they propagate through the mass media. Hold seminars and other ways to guide public opinion and trends of thought, indirectly affect government decisions. The Brookings Institution, the Carnegie Foundation for International Peace, the Heritage Foundation and the American Progressive Center are famous American think-tanks with authoritative experts on China. This paper selects the review articles of the four mainstream think-tanks from 2015 to present on the official website, quoting paragraphs and so on, as analysis samples, combs and builds the cognitive framework of the "Belt and Road" strategy of mainstream think-tank scholars, and on this basis, This paper sums up the overall judgment of "Belt and Road" strategy by American mainstream think-tank from the perspective of Sino-American comparison, and tries to find out the possible policies that the American government may adopt to "Belt and Road" strategy in the future. On the whole, although there are some rational and objective views in the US think-tank, they are more sceptical about China's motivation to implement this strategy, and believe that the "Belt and Road" strategy is conducive to enhancing China's international influence. The competition between China and the United States brings challenges to America's leading position in the Asia-Pacific region. In the short term, the United States may still be taking a wait-and-see approach, but in the long run it prefers to constrain, counterbalance or even undermine the progress and implementation of China's strategy. America's temporary wait-and-see just leaves China with room and time to act. At present, China not only needs to further communicate and exchange with the United States through existing bilateral or multilateral mechanisms, but also should take some concrete measures to strengthen Sino-US cooperation. At the same time, it makes it more difficult for the United States to interfere or influence the "Belt and Road" strategy, and actively promotes the implementation of the "Belt and Road" strategy.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C932
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