基于蒙特卡罗仿真法的研究型项目风险量化分析技术

发布时间：2019-04-08 20:27

【摘要】：科学研究型项目的执行过程正逐步走向规范化、信息化、科学化和理性化,这就要求项目风险的评估和量化方式必须深入,不仅需要分析此类项目风险的重要度排序,还必须分析相关项目风险将会对进度和成本造成的影响,也就是对研究型项目进行风险量化管理。本文着重研究面向研究型项目的风险量化技术,提出了基于蒙特卡罗仿真法的项目定量风险量化技术,基于三角分布模型构建了相关风险数据的采集与处理方法,基于最早开始时间和最早完成时间构建了项目周期模型,基于成本分解结构构建了项目成本模型,在此基础上,定义了基于蒙特卡洛仿真的抽样算法与流程,并提出了相关概率风险误差的分析方法。在风险量化的基础上提出了分层次的项目风险分析方法,针对总项目进度风险,提出了面向指定工期约束的项目相应完工概率计算方法,同时基于关键度指标,提出了面向子项目进度风险的分析方法。
[Abstract]:The implementation process of scientific research-oriented projects is gradually moving towards standardization, information-based, scientific and rational, which requires the evaluation and quantification of project risks must be in-depth, not only need to analyze the importance of the ranking of such project risks, It is also necessary to analyze the impact of related project risks on schedule and cost, that is, quantitative risk management of research projects. This paper focuses on the research-oriented project risk quantification technology, puts forward the project quantitative risk quantification technology based on Monte Carlo simulation method, and constructs the relevant risk data collection and processing method based on the triangular distribution model. The project cycle model is constructed based on the earliest start time and the earliest completion time, and the project cost model is constructed based on the cost decomposition structure. On this basis, the sampling algorithm and process based on Monte Carlo simulation are defined. The analysis method of correlation probability risk error is put forward. On the basis of risk quantification, this paper puts forward a hierarchical project risk analysis method. Aiming at the total project schedule risk, this paper puts forward a method for calculating the corresponding completion probability of a project with specified duration constraints, and at the same time, based on the index of criticality, The risk analysis method of sub-project schedule is put forward.
【作者单位】：西北工业大学科技处;
【基金】：西北工业大学政策研究基金重点项目(ZYZ201102)
【分类号】：C935

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