含概率与区间混合不确定性的系统可靠性分析方法

发布时间：2018-02-06 00:55

本文关键词： 系统可靠性概率与区间混合不确定性最大失效概率失效模式相关性　出处：《力学学报》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：系统可靠性问题中通常存在大量的不确定参数,传统方法一般是基于概率模型对系统进行可靠性分析,但是实际工程中由于数据缺乏或试验条件的限制往往难以得到参数的精确概率分布.本文将结构体系一部分样本信息充足的不确定变量用随机变量进行描述,而另一部分样本缺乏的用区间表示,并提出了一种新的含概率与区间混合不确定性的系统可靠性分析方法.首先,基于一个高效求解方法获得单失效模式下结构的最小可靠度指标;再针对多失效模式下含概率与区间混合不确定性问题建立了系统可靠性分析模型;考虑各失效模式之间的相关性,通过线性相关度计算方法求得相关系数矩阵;最后提出了串联体系和并联体系可靠度求解方法.3个数值算例表明,该方法可以实现含概率与区间混合的多个非线性失效模式下系统可靠度的计算.通过对比传统的概率可靠性分析方法,本文方法只需要少量的不确定信息便可确保系统更加安全,更适合复杂结构系统可靠性的分析和设计.
[Abstract]:A large amount of uncertain parameters are reliability problems, the traditional method is generally the probability model for reliability analysis of the system based on the actual project, but due to lack of data or exact probability distribution test conditions are often difficult to get the parameters. This paper will structure a part of sample information sufficient uncertain variables with random variables are described, and the other part of the lack of samples with interval numbers, and presents a new method for the analysis of mixed uncertainty with probability and interval of the reliability of the system. Firstly, an efficient method for solving the minimum reliability index obtained for single failure mode based on the structure; the multiple failure modes with probability and interval mixed the problem of uncertainty of system reliability analysis models were established; the correlation between failure modes, for the calculation method of linear correlation coefficient Correlation coefficient matrix; finally put forward the series system and parallel system reliability of.3 methods for solving numerical examples show that the method can calculate the failure modes of system reliability of multiple nonlinear mixed with probability and interval. By comparing the traditional probabilistic reliability analysis method, this method requires only a small amount of uncertain information can make the system more reliable, more suitable for the reliability analysis and design of complex structure.

【作者单位】：湖南大学机械与运载工程学院特种装备先进设计技术与仿真教育部重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重大项目(51490662) 湖南省杰出青年基金(14JJ1016) 霍英东基金(131005)资助项目
【分类号】：TB114.3

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