视情维修条件下的多状态控制单元可用性建模与分析

发布时间：2018-04-03 08:30

本文选题：兵器科学与技术　切入点：动态贝叶斯网络　出处：《兵工学报》2017年11期

【摘要】：针对传统可靠性分析方法难以描述系统动态特性的问题,提出了一种基于多状态动态贝叶斯网络的视情维修可用性建模方法。在定义多状态元件的基础上,构建了基于Markov模型的视情维修状态转移模型,并引入了吸收状态。通过构建多状态动态贝叶斯网络模型,确定了无维修、完全维修、不完全维修、视情维修和吸收状态下的状态转移关系,并根据串联和并联逻辑关系对条件概率赋值。以某控制单元为例,构建动态故障树模型、动态贝叶斯网络模型,确定控制单元与元件在不同维修方式下的可用度变化规律,通过重要度分析发现了可靠性设计中的薄弱环节。仿真分析表明:视情维修的引入使得控制单元与元件相对于完全维修与不完全维修具有更高的可用度;吸收状态的引入可以预测退化状态可修元件的可用度变化趋势,为维修换件提供理论指导。
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problem that the traditional reliability analysis method is difficult to describe the dynamic characteristics of the system, this paper presents a method for modeling the availability of situational maintenance based on multi-state dynamic Bayesian network.Based on the definition of multi-state components, a condition based maintenance state transition model based on Markov model is constructed, and the absorption state is introduced.By constructing a multi-state dynamic Bayesian network model, the condition transition relations under the condition of no maintenance, complete maintenance, incomplete maintenance, condition dependent maintenance and absorption state are determined, and the conditional probability is assigned according to the series and parallel logic relations.Taking a control unit as an example, a dynamic fault tree model and a dynamic Bayesian network model are constructed to determine the regularity of the availability of control units and components under different maintenance modes. The weak links in reliability design are found through the importance analysis.Simulation analysis shows that the introduction of situational maintenance makes the control unit and component have higher availability compared with complete maintenance and incomplete maintenance, and the introduction of absorption state can predict the change trend of repairable element availability in degraded state.To provide theoretical guidance for maintenance and replacement.
【作者单位】：海军航空大学兵器科学与技术系;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51605487) 中国博士后科学基金项目(2016M592965) 山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2016FQ03)
【分类号】：TB114.3

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