基于联系期望的泥石流易发性评价模型

发布时间：2018-04-23 11:25

本文选题：泥石流 + 易发性　；参考：《水利水运工程学报》2017年02期

【摘要】：泥石流的发生受到多种自然条件的影响,泥石流易发性评价是一个复杂的不确定性问题。为了对中巴公路沿线泥石流进行易发性评价,应用区间数理论与集对分析相耦合的方法,建立了基于联系期望的泥石流易发性评价模型。该模型结合泥石流实地调查和遥感解译结果,选取了14个评价指标,采用区间数理论表示评价指标量值和评价等级分级标准,利用集对分析理论计算联系期望,然后结合评价指标权重得出指标关于各易发性等级的综合联系数,最后根据最大联系数原则判定易发性等级。通过中巴公路沿线泥石流易发性评价实例以及与其他评价方法对比表明:联系期望模型能有效预测泥石流易发性等级,简化区间数关系的分析过程,为解决类似不确定性问题提供了一种新方法。
[Abstract]:The occurrence of debris flow is affected by a variety of natural conditions, and the vulnerability evaluation of debris flow is a complicated and uncertain problem. In order to evaluate the vulnerability of debris flow along the highway between China and Pakistan, an evaluation model of debris flow vulnerability based on the associated expectation was established by using the method of coupling interval number theory and set pair analysis. Based on the results of field investigation and remote sensing interpretation of debris flow, the model selects 14 evaluation indexes, uses interval number theory to express the evaluation index value and evaluation grade classification standard, and uses set pair analysis theory to calculate the associated expectation. Then, combined with the weight of evaluation index, the comprehensive connection number of each vulnerability grade is obtained, and finally the vulnerability grade is judged according to the principle of maximum association number. Through the examples of debris flow vulnerability assessment along the China-Pakistan highway and the comparison with other evaluation methods, it is shown that the model can effectively predict the vulnerability of debris flow and simplify the analysis process of interval number relationship. It provides a new method for solving similar uncertainty problems.
【作者单位】：合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院;新疆维吾尔自治区交通规划勘察设计研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51378168) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2012HGZY0024)
【分类号】：P642.23

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