黄河源区多年冻土空间分布变化特征数值模拟

发布时间：2018-04-26 02:38

本文选题：黄河源区 + 多年冻土　；参考：《地理学报》2017年09期

【摘要】：基于IPCC第五次评估报告预估的气温变化情景,采用数值模拟的方法对黄河源区典型冻土类型开展模拟,推算过去及预测未来黄河源区冻土分布空间变化过程和发展趋势。结果表明:1972-2012年源区多年冻土只有少部分发生退化,退化的冻土面积为833 km~2,季节冻土主要集中在源区东南部的热曲谷地、小野马岭以及两湖流域南部的汤岔玛地带;RCP 2.6、RCP 6.0、RCP 8.5情景下,2050年多年冻土退化为季节冻土的面积差别不大,分别为2224 km~2、2347 km~2、2559 km~2,占源区面积的7.5%、7.9%、8.6%;勒那曲、多曲、白马曲零星出现季节冻土,野牛沟、野马滩以及鄂陵湖东部的玛多四湖所在黄河低谷大片为季节冻土;2100年多年冻土退化为季节冻土的面积分别为5636 km~2、9769 km~2、15548 km~2,占源区面积的19%、32.9%、52.3%;星宿海、尕玛勒滩、多格茸的多年冻土发生退化,低温冻土变为高温冻土,各类年平均地温出现了不同程度的升高。到2100年,RCP 2.6情景下源区多年冻土全部退化为季节冻土主要发生在目前年平均地温高于-0.15oC的区域,而-0.15~-0.44oC的区域部分发生退化;RCP 6.0、RCP 8.5情景下目前年平均地温分别为高于-0.21oC以及-0.38oC的区域多年冻土全部发生退化,而-0.21~-0.69oC以及-0.38~-0.88oC的区域部分发生退化。
[Abstract]:Based on the temperature change scenarios predicted in the fifth assessment report of IPCC, the typical frozen soil types in the source region of the Yellow River are simulated by numerical simulation method, and the spatial variation process and development trend of the distribution of frozen soil in the source region of the Yellow River in the past and in the future are predicted. The results show that only a few parts of permafrost in the source area of the source area of the area of 833 km2 have been degraded from 1972 to 2012, and the seasonal frozen soil is mainly concentrated in the hot crooked valley in the southeastern part of the source region. Under the scenario of RCP 2.6 / RCP 6.0 / RCP 8.5 in Xiaowo Ma Ling and the southern Tangchama region of the two lakes, the area of frozen soil degraded into seasonal frozen soil in 2050 is not different, which is 2224 km2 22 2347 km / g 22559 km / m respectively, accounting for 7.57.9% of the source area and 8.6% of the source area; Lena qu, Doku, Doku, White horse qu scattered seasonal permafrost, bison ditch, The Yellow River valley of Mustang Beach and Maduo Lake in the east of Eling Lake is mainly seasonal frozen soil, and the area of frozen soil degraded into seasonal permafrost in 2100 years is 5636 km / m of 297 669 km / m respectively, accounting for 1 15548 km / m of the source area, accounting for 1 929% of the area of the source area, 52.3% of the total area of the source area, and the Xingshu Sea, Gamal Beach, is the main area of the Yellow River. The permafrost is degraded, the low-temperature permafrost is changed into the high-temperature permafrost, and the annual mean ground temperature increases to some extent. By 2100, under the RCP 2.6 scenario, the permafrost in the source region was degraded into seasonal permafrost, which mainly occurred in areas where the annual mean ground temperature was higher than -0.15oC at present. Under the RCP 6.0 / RCP 8.5 scenario, the permafrost in the regions where the annual mean ground temperature is higher than -0.21oC and -0.38oC, respectively, is degraded, while the regions of -0.21oC -0.69oC and -0.380-0.88oC are degraded.
【作者单位】：中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冻土工程国家重点实验室;中国科学院大学;
【基金】：中国科学院重点部署项目(KZZD-EW-13) 国家自然科学基金项目(91647103,41501079) 冻土工程国家重点实验室自主研究课题(SKLFSE-ZQ-43)~~
【分类号】：P642.14

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