四川省滑坡灾害气象预警模型建立与验证

发布时间：2018-05-11 22:27

本文选题：四川省 + 滑坡灾害　；参考：《地球信息科学学报》2017年07期

【摘要】：四川省滑坡灾害严重,特别是2008年之后,灾情显著加剧,如何预防滑坡灾害是保护人民生命财产安全的有效途径。滑坡灾害的预警模型研究是滑坡灾害预防领域的核心课题。本文对四川省滑坡灾害危险性进行了评价,并开展了滑坡灾害气象风险预警模型研究。(1)以确定性系数的方法量化坡度、地形起伏度、水文地质岩性、植被覆盖度、地震烈度和年均降雨量因子,建立逻辑回归模型,定量地进行四川省滑坡灾害危险性区划,并对结果进行验证。结果表明,四川省滑坡灾害高危险性区域成"Y"字型分布,此外川中、川东北地区滑坡灾害危险性也非常高,这与四川省滑坡灾害的空间分布情况相符。(2)在前期滑坡灾害与降雨量统计分析、滑坡灾害危险性评价的基础上,以滑坡灾害危险性评价为静态因子,日降雨量数据为动态因子,通过逻辑回归模型的结果,确定以当日降雨量概率化值、滑坡灾害危险性值、前一日降雨概率化值、前两日降雨概率化值、前三日降雨概率化值为临灾模型影响因子,各因子对预警结果影响程度按上述顺序递减,建立了地质-气象耦合的临灾气象预警模型。通过检验区数据对模型的检验表明,该预警模型能成功预警80%以上的滑坡灾害;通过滑坡灾害群发个例检验发现,该预警模型与四川省现用模型相比,预警区域明显减小,空报率和漏报率显著降低。
[Abstract]:The landslide disaster in Sichuan Province is serious, especially after 2008, the disaster situation is obviously aggravated, how to prevent landslide disaster is an effective way to protect the safety of people's life and property. The research on early warning model of landslide disaster is the core subject in the field of landslide disaster prevention. In this paper, the risk of landslide disaster in Sichuan Province is evaluated, and the early warning model of meteorological risk of landslide disaster is developed. The method of deterministic coefficient is used to quantify slope, terrain fluctuation, hydrogeological lithology and vegetation coverage. Based on the seismic intensity and annual rainfall factors, a logical regression model was established to quantitatively regionalize the risk of landslide disasters in Sichuan Province, and the results were verified. The results show that the high risk area of landslide disaster in Sichuan Province is "Y" type distribution, in addition, the landslide hazard risk is also very high in central Sichuan and northeast Sichuan. This is consistent with the spatial distribution of landslide disasters in Sichuan Province.) on the basis of the statistical analysis of landslide disasters and rainfall and the risk assessment of landslide disasters, the landslide hazard assessment is regarded as static factor and daily rainfall data as dynamic factor. Based on the results of the logical regression model, it is determined that the probabilistic value of rainfall on the day, the dangerous value of landslide disaster, the probabilistic value of rainfall in the previous day, the probabilistic value of rainfall in the first two days, and the probabilistic value of rainfall in the first three days are the influencing factors of the impending disaster model. The influence degree of each factor on the early warning result is decreasing according to the above order, and the geological-meteorological coupling model is established. The data of the test area show that the early warning model can forewarn more than 80% of landslide disasters successfully, and the early warning region is obviously reduced compared with the current model in Sichuan province. The empty report rate and the missing report rate decreased significantly.
【作者单位】：成都信息工程大学;北京华云星地通科技有限公司;广安市气象局;
【基金】：四川省国土资源厅科学研究计划(KJ-2015-18) 威海市科学技术发展计划项目“威海市暴雨次生灾害预报预警系统研究”(2014GNS014) 四川省应急测绘与防灾减灾工程技术研究中心开放基金资助项目(K2014B002) 数字制图与国土信息应用工程国家测绘地理信息局重点实验室开放基金资助项目(DM2014SC01) 四川省高校人文社会科学重点研究基地“气象灾害预测预警与应急管理研究中心”开放课题(ZHYJ15-YB09)
【分类号】：P429;P642.22

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