基于Monte-Carlo方法的边坡稳定性评价

发布时间：2018-05-12 07:45

本文选题：边坡稳定性 + 安全系数　；参考：《山地学报》2016年05期

【摘要】：以兰州九洲开发区某边坡为例,采用Slide软件中的Sensitivity Analysis模块,对边坡进行敏感性分析,得出素填土a的重度和粘聚力是影响稳定性的主要因素,而其他岩土体的物理力学性质对计算结果影响不大;利用Probabilistic Analysis模块,进行了基于Monte-Carlo方法的安全系数与可靠度计算,评价了该边坡的稳定性,并与确定性计算结果进行了对比。结果表明:尽管安全系数基本一致,但从破坏概率来说,该边坡在自重状态下,坡体处于稳定状态,破坏概率最大为0.4%;在暴雨工况下,坡体均处于不稳定状态,破坏概率最小为70.3%;而在地震作用下,东段和南段的部分仍可稳定,破坏概率极小,仅为2.7%,评价结论更加可靠和直观,有利于边坡治理方案的优化设计。
[Abstract]:Taking a slope of Jiuzhou Development Zone in Lanzhou as an example, the sensitivity of slope is analyzed by using Sensitivity Analysis module in Slide software. It is concluded that the degree and cohesion of the plain fill a are the main factors that affect the stability of the slope. However, the physical and mechanical properties of other rock and soil have little effect on the calculation results. The safety factor and reliability calculation based on Monte-Carlo method are carried out by using Probabilistic Analysis module, and the stability of the slope is evaluated and compared with the deterministic calculation results. The results show that, although the safety factor is basically the same, the slope is in a stable state with the maximum failure probability of 0.4 under the condition of deadweight, and the slope is in an unstable state under the condition of heavy rain. The minimum damage probability is 70.3, but under the earthquake, the parts of the eastern and southern sections are still stable, and the damage probability is only 2.7.The evaluation conclusion is more reliable and intuitive, which is beneficial to the optimal design of the slope treatment scheme.
【作者单位】：甘肃省科学院地质自然灾害防治研究所;中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所;
【基金】：甘肃省科学院应用研究与开发项目(2012JK-06);甘肃省科学院科技产业化项目(2014CY02) “西部之光”访问学者(2015年)~~
【分类号】：P642.22

【相似文献】