具损失概率厌恶和损失厌恶行为零售商的供应链网络均衡研究

发布时间：2018-01-13 04:17

本文关键词：具损失概率厌恶和损失厌恶行为零售商的供应链网络均衡研究　出处：《青岛大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：供应链网络均衡的研究始于Nagurney(2002),该研究为企业运营管理做出了重要的指导性作用,供应链网络均衡研究已然成为企业运营管理的重点领域。然而,这些研究大都是基于期望效用理论的网络成员完全理性行为的研究。大量事实表明:人们在面临风险时存在多种有限理性行为。如人们普遍存在着确定性效应和可能性效应、概率敏感性效应,以及损失厌恶等。大量事实证明:作为刻画完全理性行为的期望效用理论不能用来描述和说明现实中的种种有限理性行为。因此,本文以累积前景理论为基础,建立具损失概率厌恶和损失厌恶行为零售商的供应链网络均衡模型,分析零售商的对最大获利和最大损失的重视程度、对获利概率和损失概率变化的敏感性程度以及对损失的厌恶程度对自身订购决策、制造商供给决策以及整个供应链网络均衡的影响。本文的研究结果表明,累积前景理论在零售商的行为决策方面具有很好的解释力。零售商对自身最大损失的重视程度越大,其均衡订购量越小;零售商对自身最大获利的重视程度越大,其均衡订购量越大;零售商对损失概率变化敏感度越大,其均衡订购量越小;零售商对损失的厌恶程度越大,其均衡订购量越小。
[Abstract]:The study of supply chain network equilibrium began in 2002 with Nagurney, which has made an important guiding role for enterprise operation management. The study of supply chain network equilibrium has become the key area of enterprise operation management. Most of these studies are based on the expected utility theory of the network members completely rational behavior. A large number of facts show that:. There are a variety of bounded rational behaviors in the face of risk, such as certainty effect and possibility effect. Probability sensitivity effect, loss aversion and so on. A large number of facts have proved that the expected utility theory, which is used to depict fully rational behavior, can not be used to describe and explain all kinds of bounded rational behaviors in reality. Based on the cumulative prospect theory, this paper establishes a supply chain network equilibrium model for retailers with loss probability aversion and loss aversion, and analyzes the importance of retailers to maximum profit and loss. The sensitivity to the change of profit probability and loss probability and the influence of loss aversion on order decision, manufacturer supply decision and the equilibrium of the whole supply chain network are discussed in this paper. The cumulative foreground theory has a good explanatory power in the behavior decision of retailers. The more the retailers attach importance to their own maximum loss, the smaller their equilibrium ordering; The more the retailer attaches importance to its own maximum profit, the greater its balanced order quantity is; The more sensitive the retailer is to the change of loss probability, the smaller the equilibrium order is. The greater the retailer's aversion to loss, the smaller the balanced order.
【学位授予单位】：青岛大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F274

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