基于市场取向的我国天然气定价机制研究

发布时间：2018-01-19 23:00

本文关键词： 天然气定价机制市场取向 stackelberg 博弈模型 VAR模型　出处：《天津大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：发展低碳经济和转变经济发展方式，，是我国经济实现科学发展、可持续发展的必然要求。天然气作为高热值、低排放、低污染的环保能源，市场需求量激增，供应面临巨大压力，局部地区出现供需不平衡等诸多问题。国际能源署认为：一个国家天然气行业的规模和状态，在很大程度上取决于其定价政策。如何改革、完善我国天然气定价机制，理顺天然气价格，是我国天然气行业健康、有序发展的核心和关键所在。天然气定价机制改革是一项复杂的系统工程，需要行业结构调整等多方面的统筹安排，目前天然气定价机制改革的时机已较为成熟，由垄断定价向市场竞争定价转变的改革思路也已经明晰，但改革的具体措施，市场培育过程尚有待进一步明确。现有的关于天然气定价机制改革的研究成果大多以定性分析为主，缺乏定量分析与数量模型的有力支持，也没有形成系统的对向市场定价转化的市场培育过程、策略的研究。天然气价改后将产生何种影响，亦鲜有文献提及或进行评估。鉴于此，为探求我国天然气行业未来市场条件下竞争定价的可行策略，本文从我国天然气定价机制的现状出发，借鉴国外较成熟天然气市场定价经验，以博弈论的基本原理和方法为工具，以系统科学思想为指导，构建了天然气定价机制的理论模型，模型涵盖未来天然气行业上中下游定价机制的改革思路、策略，深入探讨了天然气定价的内在机理，并给出了向市场定价转化的具体措施。同时，本文通过实证研究分析了天然气价格变动对我国经济生活产生的传导效应，对改革之后产生的各种影响进行理论准备，为平稳科学的改革过度和合理系统的改革配套政策的提出提供理论支持。本文的主要结论有： 1、天然气定价机制改革的方向是市场定价，改革的思路是：在天然气上游生产领域适时放宽准入条件，引入竞争机制；加强政府对中游的管制，实行第三方准入制；培育多元化竞争的下游市场，实现天然气终端市场健康有序发展。 2、天然气管网实施“第三方准入制度”能有效的引入竞争，在保证供应安全的条件下提高天然气下游市场的议价能力，进而保证用户的利益，并有利于提高天然气供应链整体效率，对整个天然气行业发展有着非常重要的意义。 3、对天然气价格波动影响结果的实证分析，得出了天然气价格的变动会影响到国民经济、人民生活的诸多方面。这就要求政府机构在制定天然气行业改革措施和价改方案的时候，必须通盘考虑，慎重决策，循序渐进，系统进行。本文创新之处在于： 1、以博弈理论的基本原理和方法为工具，构建了未来市场条件下天然气定价机制的系统分析模型，模型涵盖未来天然气行业上、中、下游定价机制的不同改革思路的比较、分析。 2、本文不局限于短期改革措施的提出，而是基于现阶段定价机制，针对天然气行业上中下游不同的特点和运营模式，给出了向市场定价转变的市场培育过程和具体实施策略，以期逐步改善行业结构，实现市场定价。 3、通过实证分析研究天然气价格变动的传导效应。在Granger因果检验基础上，通过VAR模型的构建探索天然气价格传导效应及价格波动对各经济变量的影响程度，进而为天然气价格改革的制定和实施力度等提供参考意见，这是以前研究所忽略的。
[Abstract]:Developing low - carbon economy and changing the way of economic development is the inevitable requirement of our country ' s economy to realize the scientific development and sustainable development . The reform of the pricing mechanism of natural gas is a complex system engineering , which requires many aspects such as adjustment of industry structure . At present , the timing of the reform of the natural gas pricing mechanism is mature , and the reform thought of the pricing mechanism of natural gas in the future has been clarified . In view of the present situation of the reform of the natural gas pricing mechanism , the paper constructs a theoretical model of the natural gas pricing mechanism . The main conclusions are as follows : 1 . The direction of the reform of the pricing mechanism of natural gas is the market pricing . The idea of reform is to relax the conditions of admission in the upstream production area of natural gas , introduce the competition mechanism , strengthen the regulation of the government to the medium - tourism , implement third - party registration system , cultivate the downstream market of diversified competition , and realize the healthy and orderly development of the natural gas terminal market . 2 . The implementation of " third - party access system " of natural gas pipe network can effectively introduce competition , improve the bargaining power of the downstream market of natural gas under the condition of guaranteeing the supply safety , further guarantee the interests of the users , and help to improve the overall efficiency of the natural gas supply chain , which is of great significance to the development of the whole natural gas industry . 3 . The empirical analysis of the effect of the fluctuation of the price of natural gas shows that the fluctuation of the price of natural gas can affect the national economy and the people ' s life . The innovation of this article lies in : 1 . Based on the basic principle and method of game theory , a system analysis model of natural gas pricing mechanism in the future market conditions is constructed . The model covers the comparison and analysis of different reform ideas in the future gas industry , middle and downstream pricing mechanisms . 2 . This paper is not limited to the short - term reform measures , but on the basis of the current pricing mechanism , aiming at the different characteristics and operation modes of the upstream and downstream of the natural gas industry , the paper gives the market cultivation process and the specific implementation strategy for the transformation of market pricing , with a view to gradually improving the industry structure and realizing the market pricing . 3 . The effect of natural gas price fluctuation is studied through empirical analysis . The influence degree of gas price conduction effect and price fluctuation on economic variables is explored through VAR model .

【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.22;F726

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