考虑运输风险传导的ATO交货风险评估与应对方法研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 02:30

本文关键词： 风险传导交货风险风险评估风险应对运输风险 ATO　出处：《东北大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：交货风险是在经济贸易活动中,由交货所带来的风险。迟交货和验收不合格是交货风险的主要表现形式。在供应链环境下,个别企业交货风险事件的发生不仅会造成交货企业承担违约赔偿,而且可能导致其下游企业因零部件或原材料供应不及时而影响生产计划的完成,进而导致产成品的交货延迟,甚至造成整条供应链的生产停滞,造成订单和利益损失,使供应链在激烈竞争的环境下丧失竞争优势,因此有必要对交货风险管理进行研究。交货风险管理是对发生的交货风险事件进行识别、评估和应对,以最大程度的降低交货风险,规避由此带来的各方面损失。在传统的交货风险管理研究中,较少关注风险传导对交货风险的影响,特别是考虑物流运输风险传导的研究,而是从单个节点去进行风险管理。这样既不能从根本上解决问题,层层进行交货风险控制也造成产品供应链成本的增加。鉴于此,有必要针对风险传导情形下的交货风险问题进行风险管理研究,形成一套科学的交货风险管理方法,以最大限度的降低交货风险,提高供应链的竞争力。本文在总结分析交货风险评估与应对问题的基础上,对运输风险传导下的交货风险管理问题进行了较为深入的研究,主要开展了以下四方面的研究工作：(1)提炼了运输风险传导下交货风险管理问题。通过对供应链环境下的交货问题的实际背景分析,本文从物流运输角度提炼了考虑运输风险传导的交货风险评估以及应对问题。(2)提出了考虑运输风险传导的交货风险评估方法。针对运输风险传导环境下的交货风险评估给出了基于故障树分析法的交货风险评估方法。(3)提出了综合考虑多因素的交货风险应对策略选择方法。针对ATO企业的交货风险应对问题,从物流运输角度给出了综合考虑多因素的交货风险应对策略组合的优化模型。首先,针对交货风险事件给出对应的风险应对策略集合；然后,构建多目标的交货风险应对策略优化模型；最后,进行模型求解,得到最优的交货风险应对集合。(4)给出了本文提出方法的潜在应用研究。以往复式活塞压缩机交货风险管理为例,给出了基于故障树分析法的交货评估方法以及综合考虑多目标的交货风险应对策略优选方法,验证了本文提出方法的实用性与合理性。本文提出的考虑运输风险传导的ATO交货风险评估与应对策略选择方法研究,为解决风险传导环境下交货风险问题提供了可参考的方法或途径,为相关研究奠定了基础,亦能够帮助决策者及时选择合适的交货风险应对方案组合,以最大程度降低交货风险事件所造成的损失。
[Abstract]:Delivery risk is the risk brought by delivery in economic and trade activities. Late delivery and unqualified acceptance are the main forms of delivery risk. The occurrence of individual enterprises' delivery risk will not only cause the delivery enterprises to bear the compensation for breach of contract, but also may cause the downstream enterprises to affect the completion of the production plan due to the untimely supply of parts and raw materials. This leads to the delay of the delivery of finished products, even the stagnation of the whole supply chain, the loss of orders and interests, and the loss of the competitive advantage of the supply chain in the environment of fierce competition. Therefore, it is necessary to study the delivery risk management, which is to identify, evaluate and respond to the occurrence of the delivery risk events in order to minimize the delivery risk. In the traditional research of delivery risk management, less attention is paid to the impact of risk transmission on delivery risk, especially the study of logistics transportation risk transmission. But from a single node to carry out risk management. This not only can not fundamentally solve the problem, layer by layer of delivery risk control also lead to the increase of product supply chain cost. In view of this. It is necessary to study the risk management of delivery risk under the condition of risk transmission, and form a set of scientific delivery risk management method to minimize the risk of delivery. Based on the summary and analysis of the delivery risk assessment and response, this paper makes a deep study on the delivery risk management under the transport risk transmission. This paper mainly carries out the following four aspects of research work: 1) refining the transportation risk transmission delivery risk management problem. Through the supply chain environment of the delivery of the actual background analysis. From the perspective of logistics transportation, this paper abstracts the delivery risk assessment considering transport risk transmission and how to deal with the problem. This paper puts forward a method of risk assessment of delivery based on transportation risk transmission, and presents a method of risk assessment of delivery based on fault tree analysis for the risk assessment of delivery under the environment of transport risk transmission. This paper puts forward a comprehensive consideration of the multiple factors of the delivery risk strategy selection method, aiming at the ATO enterprise delivery risk response. From the perspective of logistics and transportation, the optimization model of the combination of delivery risk strategies considering multiple factors is given. Firstly, the corresponding risk response strategy set is given for the delivery risk events. Then, a multi-objective optimization model of delivery risk strategy is constructed. Finally, the model is solved to get the optimal delivery risk response set. 4) the potential application of the proposed method is given. Taking the reciprocating piston compressor delivery risk management as an example. The method of delivery evaluation based on fault tree analysis and the optimal selection of delivery risk strategy considering multi-objective are presented. The practicability and reasonableness of the proposed method are verified. The method of ATO delivery risk assessment and strategy selection considering transport risk transmission is proposed in this paper. It provides a reference method or approach to solve the problem of delivery risk in the environment of risk transmission, lays a foundation for relevant research, and can help decision makers to select the appropriate portfolio of delivery risk response schemes in time. The loss caused by the event to minimize the risk of delivery.
【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.4;F252

【相似文献】