供应链贸易与中国产业升级：机理分析与实证检验

发布时间：2018-01-30 07:59

本文关键词： 供应链贸易产业升级全球价值链资源重置　出处：《浙江大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：供应链贸易是国际贸易研究的一个新视野,这一视野综合了中间产品贸易和全球价值链贸易两个范畴。已有研究显示,积极参与全球供应链贸易,对于一国企业效率提升进而产业升级起着重要作用。产业升级是经济持续增长的重要基础与结果,也是中国近年产业发展必须跨越的一道坎。产业升级有两种内涵,分别为结构变化和附加值增加。供应链贸易同时涉及这两个内涵。本文主旨,就在于从全球供应链贸易视角切入,审视中国产业升级的约束条件与可能的路径选择,将供应链贸易最新的理论研究和中国产业现实对接,拓展中国产业升级研究。理论上,本文梳理了供应链贸易和产业升级的相关概念与实证研究,发现与产业升级相比,对供应链贸易的学术探讨并不系统,尚待完善。在文献整理的基础上较系统地梳理了供应链贸易对产业效率增进因而升级的四个机制,即技术溢出、专业化、竞争、资源重置以及锁定效应,并提出了一个机理系统。实证方面,基于世界投入产出表,选取了15个行业11年的面板数据,以劳动生产率作为产业升级代理变量,测度了I2P、I2E以及附加值贸易对行业产业升级的影响。研究发现,对全部15个行业样本,回归模型中I2P和附加值贸易增长对劳动生产率的增长呈现二次指数关系,而I2E增长对劳动生产率增长则是先升后降的开口向下的抛物线关系,即I2P和附加值贸易对劳动生产率的促进作用更加明显,而I2E对劳动生产率的促进存在一个“拐点”。从行业分类样本来看,I2P对科技含量较高的行业(不论是资本密集型还是劳动密集型)的影响比低科技含量的行业要大,I2E对科技含量较高的资本密集型行业劳动生产率的影响最强,而附加值贸易对四类行业劳动生产率的增长均具有显著的正向影响。基于机理分析和实证检验,本文提出了相应的政策建议,包括融入供应链贸易,深化国际分工；利用中间产品进口,转化先进技术；拓宽加工贸易内涵,建立自主产权；把握行业发展特征,优化服务体系；加快产品升级换代,创造价值增值；突破发达国家钳制,构建国家价值链等。
[Abstract]:Supply chain trade is a new vision of international trade research, which integrates the trade of intermediate goods and global value chain trade. It plays an important role in improving the efficiency of a country's enterprises and then upgrading the industry. Industrial upgrading is an important foundation and result of sustained economic growth. Industrial upgrading has two connotations, one is structural change and the other is added value increase. Supply chain trade involves these two connotations at the same time. From the perspective of global supply chain trade, this paper examines the constraints and possible path choices of China's industrial upgrading, and connects the latest theoretical research of supply chain trade with China's industrial reality. To expand the study of industrial upgrading in China. In theory, this paper combed the supply chain trade and industrial upgrading related concepts and empirical research, found that compared with industrial upgrading, the academic discussion of supply chain trade is not systematic. On the basis of literature review, this paper systematically combs the four mechanisms of supply chain trade to enhance industrial efficiency, namely technology spillover, specialization, competition, resource resetting and locking effect. A mechanism system is proposed. Empirical analysis, based on the world input-output table, selected 15 industries for 11 years of panel data, labor productivity as a proxy variable for industrial upgrading, the measurement of I2P. I2E and the impact of value-added trade on industry upgrading. The study found that all 15 industry samples. In the regression model, I _ 2P and added value trade growth have a quadratic exponential relationship to the growth of labor productivity, while I _ 2E growth is a parabola relation between the first rise and then the decline. That is, I2P and added value trade promote labor productivity more obviously, while I2E has a "inflection point" to promote labor productivity. I2P has a greater impact on industries with higher scientific and technological content (whether capital-intensive or labor-intensive) than those with low technological content. I2E has the strongest influence on labor productivity in capital-intensive industries with high scientific and technological content, while value-added trade has a significant positive effect on the growth of labor productivity in four industries. Based on the mechanism analysis and empirical test, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations, including the integration of supply chain trade, deepening the international division of labor; Import of intermediate products and transformation of advanced technology; Widening the connotation of processing trade and establishing independent property rights; Grasp the characteristics of industry development, optimize the service system; Speed up the upgrading of products, create value added; Break through the restraint of developed countries and build national value chain.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F124;F752.6

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