工业品采购代理企业产品选择及采购量预测研究

发布时间：2018-02-01 16:33

本文关键词： 采购代理产品选择预测 Shaply组合预测　出处：《浙江工商大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：采购代理是一种新兴的采购模式,随着供应链研究和实践的深入,人们对如何提高供应链效率有了更多的理解,越来越多的企业提供专业的供应链服务,而采购代理企业就是为客户企业提供包括供应链融资、产品招标采购、智能仓配等一站式供应链服务的企业。然而,随着采购代理企业的快速发展,这种新型的经营模式在为整个供应链创造巨大价值的同时,也遭遇了许多的问题,给采购代理企业和其所处的供应链带来许多的不确定的风险。工业品采购代理企业是专业从事工业品采购代理服务的提供方和执行者,也是问题的直接反馈方和解决方。由于工业品种类繁多、性质复杂,并不是所有的工业品都适合采购代理模式。同时,工业品应用于生产领域,一旦供应出现问题,会对整个生产线带来巨大损失。鉴于此,本文从工业品采购代理企业的角度出发,对工业品采购代理企业的产品选择和采购量预测进行了研究,具体工作如下:(1)介绍了工业品采购代理企业的发展现状,从工业品采购代理企业的角度提出了产品选择和产品采购量预测问题,说明其研究的价值与意义,综述了其相关研究现状。(2)研究了采购物料的分类定位方法,将Kraljic矩阵和供应定位模型综合应用于工业品采购代理企业的产品选择模型,确定模型的一级指标。通过相关文献查阅和企业深度访谈梳理出工业品采购代理企业在选择工业品品类时的影响因素,通过专家打分法,确定模型的八个二级指标。最后基于多属性决策层次分析法确定各指标权重,从而建立了工业品采购代理企业的产品选择模型,并进行了实证分析。(3)在选择出产品品类的基础上,比较分析多种采购预测方法的特性,结合工业品采购代理企业的经营特征和产品采购量的趋势,分别用趋势回归法、指数平滑法和灰色预测法对工业品采购代理企业的采购量进行了预测,继而为了提高预测精度,对上述预测方法进行了基于Shaply值的组合预测,并进行了实证分析。
[Abstract]:Procurement agent is a new procurement model. With the deepening of supply chain research and practice, people have more understanding of how to improve the efficiency of supply chain, more and more enterprises provide professional supply chain services. Procurement agency enterprises provide supply chain financing, product bidding, intelligent warehouse matching and other one-stop supply chain services for customer enterprises. However, with the rapid development of procurement agency enterprises. This new business model not only creates great value for the whole supply chain, but also encounters many problems. It brings many uncertain risks to the purchasing agent and its supply chain. The industrial purchasing agent is the professional provider and executor of the industrial procurement agency. It is also the direct feedback and solution of the problem. Due to the wide variety of industrial products and complex nature, not all industrial products are suitable for purchasing agent mode. At the same time, industrial products are used in the field of production. Once the supply problem, will bring huge losses to the entire production line. In view of this, this article from the point of view of industrial procurement agents. This paper studies the selection of products and the prediction of purchasing quantity of industrial purchasing agent enterprises. The specific work is as follows: 1) the development status of industrial purchasing agent enterprises is introduced. From the point of view of industrial purchasing agent, this paper puts forward the problems of product selection and product purchase volume prediction, and explains the value and significance of the research. In this paper, the classification and positioning methods of purchasing materials are studied, and the Kraljic matrix and supply positioning model are applied to the product selection model of industrial purchasing agent enterprises. Through the relevant literature review and in-depth interviews to sort out the industrial procurement agent in the selection of industrial products category factors, through the expert scoring method. Finally, the weight of each index is determined based on multi-attribute decision hierarchy process, and then the product selection model of industrial purchasing agent enterprise is established. On the basis of selecting the product category, this paper compares and analyzes the characteristics of various purchasing forecasting methods, and combines the management characteristics of industrial purchasing agent enterprises and the trend of product purchase volume. The trend regression method, exponential smoothing method and grey forecast method are used to forecast the purchasing quantity of industrial purchasing agent enterprises, and then to improve the prediction accuracy. The combination prediction based on Shaply value is carried out and the empirical analysis is carried out.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F274

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