基于Markov的供应链系统可靠性分析

发布时间：2018-02-21 18:13

本文关键词： 供应链可靠性马尔科夫补充变量 Laplace变换　出处：《暨南大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在经济全球化、发达的信息技术时代的市场竞争比传统市场的竞争更加激烈，竞争方式已从企业间的竞争已转变为供应链间的竞争，供应链的核心竞争力体现在企业成员间的相互协作来抵抗风险事件的能力。然而，在逐渐开放的市场内，用户需求不确定性、企业间合作的多变性、企业经营目标的矛盾性、业务复杂性以及贸易壁垒政治因素、政治和民族文化问题、自然灾害等的发生等，使得供应链可靠性受到极大的威胁。因此，供应链系统可靠性的研究具有重要的理论与实际意义。本文在分析供应链流程和功能的基础上，结合可靠性理论，建立含2个采购商、2个生产商、1个分销商、1个零售商的供应链模型，对供应链系统内出现的因天气、人员、设备、技术导致风险事件进行分析，构建系统状态转移图，建立并求解微分方程，利用Markov、概率分析、Laplace变换、补充变量法等求出系统正常、4种异常、9种故障状态下时间、频度、次数等可靠性指标，在综合计算供应链系统的收益、修理费用各项费用的条件下，列出供应链系统的利润函数，文末给出了一个算例，，验证模型可靠性，并对供应链系统的运营管理给出了具体建议。
[Abstract]:In the economic globalization, the market competition in the developed information technology age is more intense than the traditional market competition, the competition mode has changed from the competition among enterprises to the competition between supply chains. The core competence of the supply chain is reflected in the ability of the members of the enterprise to cooperate with each other to resist the risk events. However, in the gradually open market, the uncertainty of user demand, the variability of the cooperation between enterprises, the contradiction of the business objectives, The complexity of business and the political factors of trade barriers, political and national cultural problems, natural disasters and so on, make the reliability of supply chain greatly threatened. The research of supply chain system reliability has important theoretical and practical significance. Based on the analysis of supply chain flow and function and reliability theory, a supply chain model with 2 buyers, 2 manufacturers, 1 distributor and 1 retailer is established. The technology causes risk events to be analyzed, system state transition diagrams are constructed, differential equations are established and solved. By using Markov-probability analysis Laplace transform and supplementary variable method, the time and frequency of 9 abnormal states of the system are obtained. Under the condition of synthetically calculating the profit and repair expenses of the supply chain system, the profit function of the supply chain system is listed. At the end of this paper, an example is given to verify the reliability of the model. And the operation and management of the supply chain system is given specific suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F274

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