考虑风险传导情形的供应链风险识别与评估方法研究

发布时间：2018-03-01 15:10

本文关键词： 供应链风险传导风险识别风险评估　出处：《东北大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：供应链风险传导现象普遍存在于供应链中,供应链风险在供应链企业内部及供应链企业间都存在着传导的现象,因此,在供应链风险识别与评估的过程中需要考虑风险传导的情形。在传统的供应链风险识别与评估的过程中没有考虑风险传导的情形,这使得供应链风险识别和评估的效果与实际出现很大的偏差,最终导致企业选择错误的风险控制策略,给企业带来巨大的损失。鉴于此,有必要对考虑风险传导情形的供应链风险识别与评估方法问题进行研究,探寻考虑风险传导情形的供应链风险识别方法和供应链风险评估方法,使风险识别和评估的结果更加贴近实际,为企业选取合理的控制策略提供有效的决策支持,以最大限度的减少风险给供应链上的各企业带来的损失。本文总结分析了供应链风险识别问题及供应链评估问题。在此基础上,深入研究了考虑风险传导情形的供应链风险识别与评估方法,主要对以下四个方面的工作进行了研究：(1)提炼了考虑风险传导情形的供应链风险识别与评估方法问题。通过对供应链风险识别与评估问题的实际背景进行分析,本文提炼了考虑风险传导情形的供应链风险识别与评估方法问题。(2)提出了一种考虑风险传导情形的供应链风险识别方法。基于供应链风险具有传导的关联关系,提出基于DEMATEL的供应链风险识别方法。首先,获取供应链中每个企业的风险因素以及风险因素间的关联信息；然后,将供应链风险因素间的关联信息转化成三角模糊数的形式以便信息能够集结处理；进一步地,计算供应链中每个企业风险因素的中心度,并依据风险因素的中心度对每个企业中的风险因素排序。最后,识别出供应链中每个企业的关键风险因素。(3)提出了一种考虑风险传导情形的供应链风险评估方法。针对风险因素在供应链中每一个企业内部具有传导的关联关系,提出了用贝叶斯网络的方法评估考虑风险在供应链每一个企业内部传导时企业的风险值。首先,根据供应链企业内风险因素之间的“因果关系”构建贝叶斯网络。然后,利用两两对比的方法产生风险因素之间的条件概率。最后,依据贝叶斯公式推理考虑风险在企业内部传导情形的企业风险值；针对企业间风险传导的情形,首先计算企业间的相互关系程度,然后依据企业间的相互关系程度评估风险企业间传导的风险值。最后,结合风险在企业内部传导时企业的风险值和风险在企业间传导的风险值评估企业总的风险值。(4)给出了本文提出方法的潜在应用研究。针对考虑风险传导情形的M食品供应链风险识别与评估方法问题的实际背景,给出了考虑风险传导情形的供应链风险识别方法和供应链风险评估的方法的具体应用研究。从而验证本文给出的考虑风险传导情形的供应链风险识别与评估方法的合理性及实用性。本文给出的考虑风险传导情形的供应链风险识别与评估方法,为解决供应链风险识别和评估问题提供了可参考的方法,同时也为供应链风险传导、供应链风险识别和供应链风险评估研究奠定了基础,能够为决策者选取合理的风险控制策略提供有效的决策支持,降低风险给供应链各企业造成损失。
[Abstract]:Supply chain risk conduction phenomenon exists in the supply chain, supply chain risk in supply chain enterprises and between enterprises in supply chain are conduction phenomenon, therefore, consider the case of risk conduction need in the process of supply chain risk identification and evaluation. In the process of traditional supply chain risk identification and assessment of considering the risk conduction situation, which makes the supply chain risk identification and evaluation of the results and the actual great deviation, resulting in enterprise risk control strategy is wrong, to bring great loss to enterprises. In view of this, it is necessary to study the problem of risk conduction case consider supply chain risk identification and assessment methods, explore the evaluation the method takes into account the risk transmission risk identification method of supply chain and supply chain risk, the risk identification and assessment results more close to the actual, reasonable selection for the enterprise Provide effective decision support control strategy to minimize risks to the enterprises on the supply chain loss. This paper summarizes and analyzes the evaluation problem of chain and supply chain risk identification problem of supply. On this basis, further research considering the risk conduction situation of supply chain risk identification and assessment methods, mainly on the work in the following four aspects are studied: (1) consider the problem of refining the risk conduction situation of supply chain risk identification and evaluation method. Through the analysis of the actual background of supply chain risk identification and evaluation, this paper refines the consideration of risk conduction case of supply chain risk identification and assessment methods (2.) presents a risk identification method of supply chain risk transmission situation. Considering the relationship of supply chain risk based on the conduction, proposes a supply chain risk identification method based on DEMATEL First, access to information related risk factors of each enterprise in the supply chain and risk factors between; then, the supply chain risk factors between the related information into the form of triangular fuzzy numbers in order to gather information processing; further, calculated for each enterprise in the supply chain risk factors of the center, and on the basis of risk ranking the center of each factor in the enterprise risk factors. Finally, identify key risk factors for each enterprise in the supply chain. (3) proposed an evaluation method considering the risk of supply chain risk transmission situation. The relationship of risk factors for each enterprise in the supply chain has put forward transmission. The method of Bayesian network considering the risk assessment risk within the supply chain each enterprise when the enterprise value transmission. Firstly, according to the causal relationship between the risk factors of supply chain enterprise " "The construction of Bayesian network. Then, using the method of conditional probability between the 22 generation of comparative risk factors. Finally, on the basis of Bayesian reasoning to consider the risk conduction in the enterprise the enterprise risk value; for enterprise risk conduction, first calculate the degree of relationship between enterprises, then according to the degree of the relationship between enterprise evaluation risk conduction between enterprises value. Finally, the total risk value assessment of enterprise risk with the risk of risk conduction in the enterprise when the enterprise value and the risk of transmission in the enterprise value. (4) the potential application of proposed method is given in this paper. According to the actual situation of the background to consider the issue of risk conduction M food supply chain risk the identification and assessment methods, given the risk conduction situation risk identification method of supply chain and supply chain risk assessment method considering the specific application research In order to verify the rationality and practicability. Considering the risk conduction situation the supply chain risk identification and assessment methods. Considering the risk conduction situation the supply chain risk identification and assessment methods, provides a reference method for solving the supply chain risk identification and evaluation, but also for the supply chain risk transmission, laid the foundation of supply chain risk identification and risk evaluation of supply chain research, can provide effective decision-making support for decision makers to select reasonable risk control strategy, reduce the risk of loss to the supply chain enterprises.

【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F274

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