天津临港工业区东方仓储物流园区项目投资风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-03-25 13:40

本文选题：投资风险　切入点：风险管理　出处：《中国海洋大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国物流园区在不断发展过程中实现自身的完善,目前正处于物流园区“轴一幅”系统阶段。仓储物流园区的投资建设过程极具创新性和挑战性,要求在专业化物流园区内完成基本布局,引入现代供应链管理模式,满足日益复杂的物流服务的需要,实现物流服务内容和地域上的扩展。东方仓储物流园区位于天津临港工业区内,旨在打造现代化的仓储物流园区。东方仓储物流园区工程总投资金额超过2亿人民币,其投资过程必将面临各种风险。在发展过程中由于各种不确定性的存在,将导致仓储物流园区的发展面临各类风险。在东方仓储物流园区工程投资风险识别阶段,通过现阶段数据的搜集和现状分析,结合东方仓储物流园区投资发展阶段的特性,将投资风险经过归纳总结为环境风险、市场风险、经济风险、技术风险和管理风险五种。在风险评估阶段,选定德尔菲法进行定性评价,采用层次分析法与模糊综合评价法进行定量评价,定量和定性方法相结合创建投资风险指标评价体系。指标体系中目标层为天津临港工业区东方仓储物流园区投资风险评估体系；准则层包含环境风险,市场风险,经济风险,技术风险和管理风险;方案层包括经济发展环境、市场调研、产业政策调整、需求手段变化和管理机制变更等20个指标。本文的创新点体现在将风险管理理论与物流园区特征相结合,采用适用于物流园区风险管理评价的定量分析和评估,得到物流园区风险评价因素。采用模糊综合评价法,计算衡量物流园区风险管理主要评价因素的地位,并对风险因素进行排序归类。对实例天津临港工业区东方仓储物流园区进行科学分析,分别从宏观和微观角度提出相应风险管理对策,促进其可持续发展。模糊评价法的计算结果显示天津临港工业区东方仓储物流园区工程项目的投资风险整体评价结果为较安全,但是其潜在风险仍不可忽视。在众多风险中经济风险的隐患最大,市场风险次之,技术风险,环境风险和管理风险重要性较弱。针对东方仓储物流园区的投资风险识别结果,分别提出相应风险规避对策。
[Abstract]:The logistics park of our country realizes its own perfection in the process of continuous development, and is now in the "axis one piece" system stage of the logistics park. The investment and construction process of the storage logistics park is extremely innovative and challenging. It is required to complete the basic layout in the specialized logistics park, introduce the modern supply chain management mode, and meet the needs of increasingly complex logistics services. The Dongfang Warehouse Logistics Park is located in Tianjin Port Industrial Zone, which aims to create a modern warehousing logistics park. The total investment of the Dongfang Warehouse Logistics Park project exceeds 200 million RMB. The process of investment is bound to face all kinds of risks. In the process of development, due to the existence of various uncertainties, the development of warehousing logistics park will face all kinds of risks. Through the current data collection and current situation analysis, combined with the characteristics of the investment development stage of Dongfang Warehouse Logistics Park, the investment risk is summed up as environmental risk, market risk and economic risk. In the stage of risk assessment, Delphi method is selected for qualitative evaluation, and AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are used for quantitative evaluation. Quantitative and qualitative methods are combined to establish an index evaluation system for investment risk. The target level of the index system is the investment risk assessment system of Dongfang warehousing logistics park in Tianjin Lingang Industrial Zone, and the criterion layer includes environmental risk, market risk and economic risk. Technical risk and management risk; Plan level includes economic development environment, market research, industrial policy adjustment, The innovation of this paper is to combine the theory of risk management with the characteristics of logistics park, and adopt quantitative analysis and evaluation suitable for risk management evaluation of logistics park. The risk evaluation factors of logistics park are obtained. The position of the main evaluation factors of risk management in logistics park is calculated and measured by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The risk factors are sorted and classified. A case study of Tianjin Lingang Industrial Zone Oriental Warehouse Logistics Park is carried out. The corresponding risk management countermeasures are put forward from the macro and micro perspectives, respectively. The result of fuzzy evaluation method shows that the overall evaluation result of investment risk of Dongfang warehousing logistics park project in Tianjin port industrial zone is relatively safe. But the potential risk can not be ignored. Among the many risks, the hidden danger of economic risk is the biggest, the market risk is the second, and the importance of technology risk, environmental risk and management risk is weak. The corresponding countermeasures of risk aversion are put forward respectively.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F259.27

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