J化妆品事业部的需求预测管理研究

发布时间：2018-03-25 20:17

本文选题：需求管理　切入点：数据清洗　出处：《华东理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：在当今化妆消费品行业中,J化妆品事业部必须面对剧烈的需求波动,生产资源和供应资源有限的外部环境,在激烈的市场市场竞争中生存。为了平衡生产和销售,在保证不缺货的同时又不过度生产,对供应链管理来说是一项巨大挑战。改善需求管理,能从根本上提高顾客满意度,提升产能利用率,降低新产品开发周期和库存,及最终实现企业利润率和投资回报率等方面带来巨大好处。本文以现代供应链销售运营计划和需求管理理论为依据,先对J事业部的历史数据收集清洗,找出真实需求并进行分析汇总,然后利用需求预测方法和统计技术建立水平和趋势预测模型及季节性模型两大类共十四种模型,验证并修正模型以找出最符合发展趋势的模型,并建立预测准确性考核体系KPI来评估预测质量。另一方面,还通过与经销商进销存信息协同,获取供应链下游信息,从而加强供应链的信息透明度并且提升预测准确度。 J化妆品事业部的需求预测管理,为企业下一步的供应和运营计划提供了依据,同时也为相关快销品行业的需求分析和管理提供了一个很好的范例。
[Abstract]:In today's cosmetic consumer goods industry, the cosmetics division must face severe demand fluctuations, production resources and supply resources limited external environment, survive in the fierce market competition. In order to balance production and sales, It is a great challenge for supply chain management to improve demand management, improve customer satisfaction, increase capacity utilization, reduce the development cycle and inventory of new products. And the ultimate realization of corporate profit margins and return on investment and other aspects of great benefits. Based on the modern supply chain sales operation plan and demand management theory, this paper first collects and cleans the historical data of J business department, finds out the real demand, and analyzes and summarizes it. Then using demand forecasting methods and statistical techniques to establish level and trend forecasting model and seasonal model two categories of 14 models to verify and modify the model to find out the most consistent with the development trend of the model. On the other hand, the downstream information of the supply chain can be obtained by cooperating with the dealer, so as to enhance the information transparency of the supply chain and improve the accuracy of the prediction. The demand forecasting management of J Cosmetics Division provides the basis for the next supply and operation plan of the enterprise, and also provides a good example for the demand analysis and management of the related fast selling products industry.
【学位授予单位】：华东理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.72;F274

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