缺货风险规避态度影响牛鞭效应的系统动力学模型

发布时间：2018-04-05 08:09

本文选题：系统动力学　切入点：牛鞭效应　出处：《物流技术》2013年21期

【摘要】：鉴于供应链成员对待缺货风险的态度会直接影响其订货决策,进而对牛鞭效应产生影响。为探讨此种影响,利用系统动力学仿真软件Vensim PLE,在传统二阶段供应链模型的基础上,引入缺货风险规避参数建立新的系统动力学模型,对供应商和零售商的不同风险态度组合进行了系统仿真。研究表明:(1)参与者对待缺货风险的态度会对牛鞭效应产生影响,并且随着风险规避参数的增加,牛鞭效应更加严重;(2)上游供应链的缺货规避态度比下游供应链的缺货规避态度更能强化牛鞭效应。
[Abstract]:In view of the supply chain members' attitude towards the risk of shortage will directly affect their ordering decision and then the bullwhip effect.In order to explore this effect, a new system dynamics model is established by introducing the risk avoidance parameters of shortage based on the traditional two-stage supply chain model using the system dynamics simulation software Vensim ple.The different risk attitude combinations of suppliers and retailers are simulated systematically.The study shows that the attitude of participants to the risk of shortage has an impact on the bullwhip effect, and as the risk aversion parameter increases,The bullwhip effect is more serious in upstream supply chain than in downstream supply chain.
【作者单位】：重庆邮电大学信科公司;重庆邮电大学经济管理学院;
【分类号】：F274;F224

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