基于压力测试的快时尚供应链零售商库存风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-04-09 15:26

本文选题：快时尚供应链　切入点：压力测试　出处：《东华大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,随着ZARA、HM等国际服装品牌进入中国市场,“快时尚”成为了中国服装行业发展的新趋势,所谓快时尚品牌,实际应该被称作“快时尚零售平价品牌”。“快时尚零售平价品牌”体现在三方面：顾客用更少的钱得到更时尚的服装、产品开发周期变快、快时尚紧跟时尚潮流。这些“快时尚”给服装行业带来的变化对其供应链管理提出了新的要求。而我国的快时尚企业却面临着前所未有的库存风险的巨大冲击。在日益激烈的国际竞争环境中,供应链向着全球的延伸加剧了供应链的复杂性以及不稳定性,供应链面临多重风险的冲击。在众多的不稳定性因素中,极端事件极其特殊,其发生概率小,但极端事件是突发性,不可预知的；同时极端情形的发生会给企业造成巨大的冲击,直接导致成本增加,利润下滑,生产能力急剧下降甚至生产中断。压力测试是风险管理的重要工具,是一种以定量分析为主的风险分析方法,重点在于通过设定压力情景,利用确定的价值评估模型,测算出研究对象可能受到的影响或者损失。本文的主要工作是运用压力测试方法对快时尚供应链库存风险进行评估并提出相应对策。通过压力清静的设定,反映出在极端冲击模式下,快时尚供应链将要面临的库存风险。本文研究了以下核心问题：首先,对快时尚供应链、压力测试和供应链库存风险管理的相关理论进行总结。通过对快时尚供应链相关文献的整理,归纳出快时尚供应链的特点,分析供应链如何运作才能够保障“快”的实现,分析压力测试的具体技术、方法以及应用,分析其在供应链风险管理的可能性,总结针对市场需求不确定性较大且必须在销售确定订货量的产品多采用报童模型确定最有订购量,分析现有的改进报童模型,以助于建立针对快时尚供应链的报童模型。其次针对快时尚供应链生产提前期长、销售周期短、期末未售出产品的残值低、需求波动性强的特点,考虑顾客购买行为是具有理性的,建立考虑顾客效用下的二次销售报童模型。对于服装行业,即使期末未售出的产品也仍然有价值,快时尚零售商会采取低价、反季节促销等手段把剩余产品以低于成本的价格再销售以减少损失,同理,在打折销售的时候顾客仍会与自己心理价位进行比较从而决定是否购买产品。由此,可以建立考虑顾客效用的二次销售报童模型。第三,设定需求规模变化为冲击因子,运用压力测试法,讨论订购量、库存受到的影响。根据快时尚供应链特点,识别对快时尚供应连库存造成风险的因素,采用考虑顾客效用的二次销售报童模型将风险因素量化,假定极端情况下,快时尚供应连上的零售商要面临的库存风险。最后针对快时尚供应链库存风险建立仿真模型,结合对库存风险因素的分析,通过建立随机需求库存仿真模型,在构建基准情景的基础上,考虑需求骤增和骤减对零售商库存成本(缺货成本)造成的影响。本文的创新点可以概括为以下三方面：在理论研究上,首次将压力测试与供应链库存风险管理理论相结合。压力测试作为金融行业风险管理的工具,近两年才运用到供应链风险管理上,是新兴的研究方法。研究内容上,目前对快时尚供应连库存管理的研究很少,本文要针对快时尚供应链的特点,考虑到快时尚供应链现实所面临的库存风险的角度,量化库存风险。在研究方法上,构建考虑顾客效用的二次销售报童模型。目前虽然针对产品更新速度快,物流运作时间短的要求,过季产品剩余价值低产品的报童模犁有很多扩展研究,考虑顾客效用的二次销售报童模型有待改进。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with ZARA, HM and other international clothing brands to enter the market Chinese, "fast fashion" has become a new trend in the development of China garment industry, the so-called fast fashion brand, actually should be called "fast fashion retail brand parity. Fast fashion retail value brand" is embodied in three aspects: customers use less money to get the more fashionable clothing, faster product development cycle, fast fashion fashion trend. These "fast fashion" changes in clothing industry put forward new requirements for supply chain management. And the fast fashion companies in China is facing the huge impact of the risk of unprecedented inventory.
In the increasingly fierce international competition environment, supply chain extension in the global intensified supply chain complexity and instability, the supply chain is facing multiple risk impact. In numerous instability factors, extreme events is very special, the probability is small, but the extreme events is sudden and unpredictable; at the same time extreme situation can cause huge impact to the enterprise, directly lead to increased costs, profits decline, a sharp decline in production capacity and production interruption.
The pressure test is an important tool of risk management, is an analysis method for quantitative analysis of risk, focuses on the scene by setting pressure, using the evaluation model, calculate the object of study can be affected by the loss. The main work of this paper is to use stress testing method of fast fashion supply chain inventory risk assessment and put forward the corresponding countermeasures. By quiet pressure setting, reflected in extreme impact mode, the risk will face fast fashion supply chain inventory. This paper studies the following key problems:
First of all, the fast fashion supply chain, theory of stress testing and risk of supply chain inventory management are summarized. Through the relevant literature on fast fashion supply chain arrangement, summed up the characteristics of fast fashion supply chain, analysis of supply chain management to ensure the implementation of the "fast", analysis of the specific technology of pressure test method and the application in the analysis of the possibility of supply chain risk management, summed up according to the market demand is uncertain and must be in sales to determine the order quantity of products by the newsboy model to determine the order quantity of modified newsboy model existing, in order to help to build fast fashion supply chain newsboy model.
Secondly, fast fashion supply chain production lead time is long, short sales cycle, the final unsold products value is low, demand characteristic of strong volatility, consider the customer purchasing behavior is rational, the establishment of two customer utility sales newsboy model under consideration. For the garment industry, even if the final unsold products are still there the value of fast fashion retailers to low-cost, anti season promotion methods such as the remaining products at below cost to sell in order to reduce losses, similarly, customers will compare to decide whether to purchase the products and their psychological price at the time of sale. Therefore, can set up two sales newsboy model considering customer utility.
Third, set change size as the impact factor, the use of stress testing method, discuss the effect of the order quantity, inventory. According to the characteristics of fast fashion supply chain, identification of fast fashion supply of inventory risk factors, by considering customer utility two sales newsboy model to quantify risk factors, assuming that under extreme conditions the risk, even on fast fashion supply retailers face inventory.
Finally, based on fast fashion supply chain inventory risk simulation model is established, combined with the analysis of inventory risk factors, through the establishment of stochastic demand inventory simulation model, based on the construction of a baseline scenario, consider the demand surge and the sharp drop of the retail inventory cost (cost) effect caused.
The innovation of this article can be summed up in the following three aspects:
In theory research, for the first time, pressure test is combined with supply chain inventory risk management theory. Stress test as a tool of risk management in financial industry has been applied to supply chain risk management in recent two years, which is a new research method.
In terms of content, there are few researches on fast fashion supply chain inventory management. In this paper, we should take account of the characteristics of fast fashion supply chain and take account of the inventory risk faced by fast fashion supply chain, so as to quantify inventory risk.
In research methods, the construction of two sales newsboy model considering customer utility. Although the product update speed, the logistics operation time is short, the newsboy problem model ploughed season products surplus value low product has a lot of extensive research, consider the two customer utility sales newsboy model needs to be improved.

【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F713.32;F274

【参考文献】