基于需求波动的服装供应链动态行为分析及其应用研究

发布时间：2018-04-17 17:05

本文选题：服装供应链 + 系统动力学　；参考：《天津大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：服装供应链运营过程中存在很多不确定因素,如市场需求变化、天气变化等。这些因素使得服装供应链系统更加难以管理。为了更好控制服装供应链系统,为服装企业节省更多的成本,获得更高的利润率,本文从分析服装供应链动态行为的基础上,进行了如下研究:1采用经典控制理论建立了服装供应链的动态控制模型。在模型中充分考虑了服装供应链中原材料供应商、半成品库存、终端库存等各方面的因素,使得供应链的动态行为更加贴近实际经营中供应链的行为。在此基础上,采用仿真的方式研究了库存误差调整参数Ti、在制品库存误差调整参数Tw、生产延迟Tp、市场需求预测平滑指数Ta等参数的影响。通过仿真获得了不同参数变化下的库存行为的变化情况,最后介绍了通过劳斯定理来判断供应链模型是否稳定的方法。通过仿真结果分析,可知调整库存误差调整参数Ti可以使库存动态行为变化最明显,进而有效地获得优化的库存动态性能。2在服装供应链总体动态行为分析的基础上,本文更加深入地研究了服装供应链综合库存系统在价格波动情况下的动态行为。供应链综合库存系统将供应链销售物流中渠道库存和终端库存作为一个整体考虑。在本文中假设价格波动由零售商促销活动的价格折扣策略产生。当零售商库存和渠道库存达到一定水平以后,为了提高服装的销量、调节库存水平,零售商就要采取价格折扣策略进行促销。促销引起的需求波动由渠道库存和终端库存共同决定。在本文中为了更好地研究综合库存系统的动态行为,分别给予渠道库存和终端库存相应的权重。然后,通过李雅普诺夫定理求出了系统稳定域的决策参数的范围。通过仿真的方式研究了不同价格折扣参数、终端库存权重、决策参数对于综合库存系统各个部分的行为的影响,获得不同特征行为的相应的决策参数的取值范围。3最后本文提出了综合供应链系统的优化方法。该优化方法采用人工智能方法——模糊控制,进行建模。本文采用偏差控制的方式,通过调整供应链中的库存偏差获得合适的库存误差调整参数Ti,进而获得最优的供应链动态性能。然后采用比例因子的方式对调整结果进行微调,使管理人员的经验能够符合新的情况。比例因子调节的方式使得模糊控制具有更大的灵活性和具有较强的适应性。
[Abstract]:There are many uncertain factors in the process of clothing supply chain operation, such as market demand change, weather change and so on.These factors make the clothing supply chain system more difficult to manage.In order to control the apparel supply chain system better, save more cost and obtain higher profit rate for garment enterprises, this paper analyzes the dynamic behavior of clothing supply chain.In this paper, the dynamic control model of apparel supply chain is established by using the classical control theory.In the model, the factors of raw material supplier, semi-finished product inventory and terminal inventory are fully considered, which makes the dynamic behavior of supply chain more close to the behavior of supply chain in actual operation.On this basis, the effects of parameters such as inventory error adjustment parameter (Ti), work-in-process inventory error adjustment parameter (Tws), production delay (TP) and market demand prediction smoothing index (Ta) are studied by simulation.The change of inventory behavior under different parameters is obtained by simulation. Finally, the method of judging whether the supply chain model is stable or not is introduced by the law theorem.Through the analysis of simulation results, it can be concluded that adjusting inventory error adjustment parameter Ti can make inventory dynamic behavior change most obviously, and then effectively obtain optimized inventory dynamic performance .2 on the basis of overall dynamic behavior analysis of clothing supply chain.In this paper, the dynamic behavior of the clothing supply chain integrated inventory system under the condition of price fluctuation is studied more deeply.Supply chain integrated inventory system considers channel inventory and terminal inventory in supply chain sales logistics as a whole.In this paper, it is assumed that the price fluctuation is caused by the price discount strategy of the retailer's promotional activities.When the retailer's inventory and channel inventory reach a certain level, in order to improve the clothing sales and adjust the inventory level, the retailer should take the price discount strategy to promote the sales.The demand fluctuation caused by sales promotion is determined by channel inventory and terminal inventory.In this paper, in order to study the dynamic behavior of integrated inventory system better, the weights of channel inventory and terminal inventory are given respectively.Then, the range of decision parameters in the stability domain of the system is obtained by Lyapunov theorem.The effects of different price discount parameters, terminal inventory weight and decision parameters on the behavior of each part of the integrated inventory system are studied by simulation.Finally, the optimization method of the integrated supply chain system is proposed in this paper.This optimization method uses artificial intelligence method-fuzzy control, carries on the modeling.In this paper, the optimal dynamic performance of the supply chain is obtained by adjusting the inventory deviation in the supply chain by adjusting the inventory error adjustment parameter Ti.Then the adjustment results are fine-tuned by the scale factor, so that the manager's experience can adapt to the new situation.The way of scaling factor makes fuzzy control have more flexibility and adaptability.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F274;F407.86

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