中石化进口原油供应链弹性仿真与优化研究

发布时间：2018-06-04 19:39

本文选题：原油供应链 + 供应链弹性　；参考：《哈尔滨理工大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：石油是影响国民经济的重要战略性物资,是国家间关注的焦点,随着我国经济增长步伐的加大,石油需求的增长尤为突出。尽管中国正在进行经济结构转型,但我国仍然是世界最大能源消费国和净进口国,而中石化所进口的原油量约占我国进口原油量的七成,一旦中石化进口原油供应链受到巨大冲击,将严重威胁到我国的石油安全。恰恰中石化进口原油供应来源、运输路线大部分受到其他国家的制辖,风险极大,提升中石化进口原油供应链的弹性,降低扰动造成的损失,才能有效保障我国石油安全。为了更好地研究提升中石化进口原油供应链弹性的途径,本文从以下三部分展开。第一部分理论分析。首先分析中石化进口原油供应链结构与其运行现状,从中提炼出供应链所存在的问题,分析得出这些问题都是弹性不足的表现。并对中石化进口原油供应链系统环境进行分析,从中提炼会对供应链造成严重负面影响的干扰因素,对干扰因素会造成的扰动情形进行分析与总结。为后续仿真模型的建立与仿真实验提供理论依据。第二部分构建中石化进口原油供应链弹性仿真模型,并对设防库存、应急采购与备用路线三条策略进行仿真实验,揭示三条策略对弹性的影响。第三部分以适度弹性为目标,对中石化进口原油供应链弹性进行优化,得到最优方案,并提出弹性优化的策略建议。本文最终成果是借助仿真方法的动态性,建立中石化进口原油供应链弹性仿真模型,将扰动情形根植于仿真模型中,为中石化提升弹性提供实验依据。同时以适度弹性为优化目标,得出最优方案,为中石化提升弹性提供新的思路。
[Abstract]:Petroleum is an important strategic material that affects the national economy and is the focus of attention between countries. With the increase of economic growth in our country, the increase of oil demand is especially prominent. Although China is undergoing economic restructuring, China is still the world's largest energy consumer and net importer, while Sinopec imports about 70 percent of its crude oil imports. Once Sinopec's supply chain of imported crude oil is greatly impacted, it will seriously threaten the oil security of our country. It is precisely the supply source of imported crude oil from Sinopec, and most of the transportation routes are controlled by other countries, so the risks are great. Only by enhancing the elasticity of supply chain of imported crude oil of Sinopec and reducing the loss caused by disturbance, can the oil safety of our country be effectively guaranteed. In order to improve the supply chain elasticity of Sinopec's imported crude oil, this paper starts from the following three parts. The first part is the theoretical analysis. Firstly, the supply chain structure and operation status of Sinopec imported crude oil supply chain are analyzed, and the problems of supply chain are extracted from it, and the results show that these problems are insufficient elasticity. The paper also analyzes the environment of Sinopec's imported crude oil supply chain system and analyzes and summarizes the disturbance factors which will cause serious negative impact on supply chain and the disturbance caused by interference factors from the environment of Sinopec's imported crude oil supply chain system. It provides the theoretical basis for the establishment of the following simulation model and simulation experiment. In the second part, the elastic simulation model of Sinopec imported crude oil supply chain is constructed, and the simulation experiments are carried out on the three strategies of fortification inventory, emergency purchasing and standby route to reveal the influence of the three strategies on elasticity. In the third part, the elasticity of Sinopec imported crude oil supply chain is optimized with the aim of moderate elasticity, and the optimal scheme is obtained, and the strategic suggestions for elastic optimization are put forward. The final achievement of this paper is to establish the elastic simulation model of Sinopec imported crude oil supply chain with the help of the dynamic simulation method. The disturbance is rooted in the simulation model, which provides the experimental basis for Sinopec to enhance the elasticity. At the same time, with moderate elasticity as the optimization goal, the optimal scheme is obtained, which provides a new way of thinking for Sinopec to enhance elasticity.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F274;F426.72

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