基于模糊综合评价法与神经网络综合评价法的Z公司供应链风险识别和评价技术研究

发布时间：2018-06-09 07:06

本文选题：供应链风险 + 模糊综合评价　；参考：《中国铁道科学研究院》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：20世纪末期以来,在科技和生产力快速发展的大背景下,全球化信息网络逐步形成,加快了全球化市场的形成,也加速了技术应用地域变迁,导致新产品层出不穷,市场竞争日趋激烈。生产力的发展、制造工艺的革新和客户需求的日益多样化就要求企业加速研发新产品,不断缩短交货期,同时提高产品质量和服务质量。为获得新形势下的竞争优势,企业纵向和横向整合力度不断加大,陆续出现了一些巨无霸企业集团。随着巨型公司供应链整合的快速进行,供应链在给企业带来竞争优势的同时也伴随带来了更多风险。供应链风险的传递进一步导致了供应链的脆弱性;由此造成的供应链管理效率低下问题,时常在供应链企业间发生并造成不同程度的损失。本文以轨道交通装备制造企业Z公司的供应链风险管理为主要研究对象,通过对Z公司供应链风险管理的研究,针对供应链风险识别方法以及供应链风险分析方法,总结了一套基本上完整可行的理论,对于装备制造型企业供应链管控指导理论也起到了一定的丰富作用。另外,对于Z公司而言,从管理实践角度讲,对企业在智能制造和产业升级的大背景下进行供应链风险管理优化升级,提升企业竞争力,优化经营绩效等也具有建设意义。本文主要由五部分组成:第一章,绪论,主要是明晰企业供应链风险评估和分析的相关研究背景,简要介绍关于供应链风险管理的国内外相关研究现状,在给出本文技术路线的基础上简要介绍本文内容安排。第二章,供应链风险管理理论综述,主要归纳了有关管理理论知识以及进行供应链风险评估中所用到的模型原理。第三章,Z公司供应链风险因素识别,主要是界定Z公司供应链风险因素。通过内部调研走访,采用SWOT分析以及波特五力模型框架,分析Z公司在行业的定位以及供应链竞争力水平。设计调查问卷用于收集数据来研究Z公司供应链相关因素指标并将因素指标进行分类,为后续对各类风险评价提供条件。第四章,基于模糊综合评价法与神经网络综合评价法的Z公司供应链风险评价,主要是对Z公司供应链风险进行评价,分析各类风险因素的重要性程度并设置权重;运用神经网络综合评价方法和模糊综合评价法,对各类风险所包含的二级指标进行评价,比较分析两类方法的评价结果后取得各风险因素的重要程度。第五章,Z公司供应链风险分析及管理措施,主要是针对Z公司供应链风险研究提出防控措施。根据Z公司企业经营管理特点及其各风险因素状态提出进行进一步合理化的建议措施。本文的研究成果针对目前轨道交通制造企业的供应链风险管理现状及管理要点,提出的风险评价方法及管控措施可直接用于Z公司供应链管理过程中,希望有助于改进完善企业的供应链风险管理体系。
[Abstract]:Since the end of the 20th century, under the background of rapid development of science and technology and productivity, the global information network has gradually formed, accelerated the formation of global market and accelerated the regional changes of technology application, resulting in the emergence of new products in endlessly. The market is becoming increasingly competitive. With the development of productivity, the innovation of manufacturing process and the increasing diversification of customer demand, enterprises should accelerate the research and development of new products, shorten the delivery time, and improve the quality of products and service at the same time. In order to obtain the competitive advantage under the new situation, the vertical and horizontal integration of enterprises is continuously strengthened, and some giant enterprise groups appear one after another. With the rapid development of supply chain integration of giant companies, supply chain brings more risks as well as competitive advantages. The transmission of supply chain risk leads to the fragility of supply chain, and the inefficient supply chain management often occurs among supply chain enterprises and results in different losses. This paper takes the supply chain risk management of Z Company as the main research object, through the research on the supply chain risk management of Z Company, aiming at the supply chain risk identification method and the supply chain risk analysis method. A set of basic complete and feasible theory is summarized, which also plays a rich role in the supply chain management and control guidance theory of equipment manufacturing enterprises. In addition, for company Z, from the perspective of management practice, it is significant to optimize and upgrade supply chain risk management in the context of intelligent manufacturing and industrial upgrading, to enhance enterprise competitiveness, and to optimize business performance. This paper is mainly composed of five parts: chapter one, introduction, mainly clarify the relevant research background of enterprise supply chain risk assessment and analysis, briefly introduce the domestic and foreign related research status of supply chain risk management. On the basis of giving the technical route of this paper, the content arrangement of this paper is introduced briefly. The second chapter summarizes the theory of supply chain risk management, mainly summarizes the knowledge of management theory and the theory of model used in the risk assessment of supply chain. The third chapter is to identify the supply chain risk factors of Z Company, mainly to define the supply chain risk factors of Z Company. Through internal investigation and visit, SWOT analysis and Porter's five-force model framework are used to analyze Z Company's position in the industry and the level of supply chain competitiveness. The questionnaire is designed to collect data to study the supply chain related factors in Z Company and classify the factors to provide the conditions for the subsequent risk assessment. The fourth chapter, based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and neural network comprehensive evaluation method, Z company supply chain risk evaluation, mainly to Z company supply chain risk evaluation, analysis of the importance of various risk factors and set up the weight; Neural network comprehensive evaluation method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are used to evaluate the secondary indexes contained in various kinds of risks, and the importance of each risk factor is obtained by comparing and analyzing the evaluation results of the two kinds of methods. The fifth chapter is about the risk analysis and management measures of supply chain in Z Company, mainly aiming at the research of supply chain risk of Z Company. According to the management characteristics of Z Company and its risk factors, some suggestions are put forward for further rationalization. According to the current situation and key points of supply chain risk management in rail transit manufacturing enterprises, the method of risk evaluation and control measures proposed in this paper can be directly used in the process of supply chain management of company Z. Hope to improve and improve the supply chain risk management system.
【学位授予单位】：中国铁道科学研究院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F274;F426.4

【参考文献】