基于需求预测准确度的供应链合同设计

发布时间：2018-06-19 01:08

本文选题：供应链 + 合同设计　；参考：《天津大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,供应链管理,尤其是如何使供给与需求达到匹配已受到越来越多的关注.解决供给与需求匹配的一个有效的办法就是在销售期之前,让零售商对市场需求进行预测.然而,零售商往往不愿意披露关于市场需求预测的准确程度.因此,如何对零售商拥有关于市场需求准确度的私人信息的供应链进行合同设计具有重要的研究意义. 本文考虑的是包含一个强势供应商与一个弱势零售商之间的供应链的合同设计问题.其中,零售商拥有关于市场需求预测准确程度的私人信息.作为基准,首先考虑了完全信息下的最优合同形式.结果表明无论对于高预测准确程度的零售商还是对于低预测准确程度的零售商来说,最优的订货量都存在一个门槛.同时,当零售商关于市场需求的预测为高时,很难判断哪一种预测准确程度对生产商来说更为有利,而是取决于做高准确度预测的性价比.然而,当零售商关于市场需求的预测为低时,低准确程度的预测总是更好的.进一步地,得到了存在不对称信息时的最优合同形式.通过与完全信息下的合同形式相比,发现订货量的门槛有所扭曲.而且,生产商的期望收益始终不大于在完全信息下的收益.最后,考虑了不存在预测成本这一特殊情形,并给出了数值算例来阐释本文的结论.
[Abstract]:In recent years, more and more attention has been paid to supply chain management, especially how to match supply and demand. An effective solution to matching supply and demand is to allow retailers to forecast market demand before the sales period. However, retailers are often reluctant to disclose the accuracy of market demand forecasts. Therefore, it is of great significance to study how to design the supply chain in which retailers have private information about the accuracy of market demand. This paper considers the contract design of supply chain between a strong supplier and a weak retailer. Among them, retailers have private information about the accuracy of market demand forecasts. As a benchmark, the optimal contract form under complete information is first considered. The results show that there is a threshold for the optimal order quantity for both the retailers with high prediction accuracy and those with low prediction accuracy. At the same time, when the retailer's forecast of market demand is high, it is difficult to judge which kind of forecast is more favorable to the manufacturer, but depends on the performance and price ratio of the high accuracy forecast. However, when retailers' forecasts of market demand are low, low-precision forecasts are always better. Furthermore, the optimal contract form with asymmetric information is obtained. By comparing with the contract form under complete information, the threshold of order quantity is found to be distorted. Moreover, the manufacturer's expected returns are never greater than those under complete information. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the conclusion of this paper.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F274;F224.32

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