突发事件下生命线系统设计与应急响应策略研究

发布时间：2018-06-23 07:28

本文选题：生命线系统 + 关联关系　；参考：《上海交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：生命线系统是指人民日常生活中必不可少，对于维持区域内社会经济基本功能起到关键支撑作用的设施，由最核心的关键基础设施，如供水系统、供电系统、通信系统、交通系统、医疗系统等组成。近年来，一方面各种突发事件频频发生，另一方面随着工业化、现代化程度的提高，关键基础设施子系统之间关联日益紧密，整个生命线系统日益复杂和脆弱。子系统中一个设施被破坏，不仅造成该子系统内部其他设施受影响，而且由于子系统间的关联关系，“多米诺骨牌”现象的级联效应极大影响了其他子系统的正常运行，致使生命线系统整体的瘫痪，继而对社会、经济、生态造成巨大的损失。因此考虑生命线系统子系统间复杂关联关系的生命线系统应急管理研究尤为重要。基于国内外已有的研究成果，本文重点针对生命线系统各子系统相互耦合的特性，研究生命线系统的节点整体综合设计与应急响应策略优化。本文的主要研究内容如下：首先，总结了突发事件和应急管理的概念和特点，提出了一种新的突发事件应急管理阶段划分方法，并说明了各阶段的核心任务与目标。分析了国内外突发事件应急关系模式的特点和差异，阐述了我国突发事件应急管理中亟待解决的问题以及本文重点研究解决的问题。其次，针对突发事件发生前的应急准备阶段，通过影响矩阵将多系统耦合多层级分布的生命线系统抽象为“节点-关系”图。考虑系统中不同类的任意两节点间的相互影响，以最大化的系统网络总服务能力为优化目标，建立了预算资金约束下，生命线系统节点整体综合设计的数学模型，设计了有效的遗传算法对模型进行求解，通过不同规模下的数值实验结果表明了该算法的收敛性。最后，以典型情景为案例，深入分析了不同情况下的解的共性与区别，对决策部门合理设计生命线系统具有重要的参考价值。最后，针对突发事件中的应急响应阶段，将生命线系统抽象为多层分布式供应链系统网络。以供应链的网络流表示子系统内的关系，以失效输入输出模型描述子系统间的关联关系，分析系统节点修复的动态特性及可用资源、时间约束，，建立了突发事件下有限时间内的应急修复策略与实时运营策略的联合优化模型。通过实际案例分析，与各子系统独立应急响应策略相比较，此联合应急响应策略模型表现更加优异，可有效降低整个生命线系统的总损失，为决策者提供全面而有效的决策支持。
[Abstract]:Lifeline systems are facilities that are essential to people's daily lives and play a key supporting role in maintaining the basic socio-economic functions of the region, and are made up of the most core key infrastructure, such as water supply systems, power supply systems, communications systems, Transportation system, medical system, etc. In recent years, on the one hand, a variety of emergencies occur frequently; on the other hand, with the improvement of industrialization and modernization, the key infrastructure subsystems are increasingly closely related to each other, and the whole lifeline system is becoming increasingly complex and fragile. The destruction of one facility in the subsystem not only affects other facilities within the subsystem, but also the cascade effect of "domino" phenomenon greatly affects the normal operation of other subsystems because of the relationship between the subsystems. The whole lifeline system is paralyzed, and then it causes huge losses to society, economy and ecology. Therefore, it is very important to study the emergency management of lifeline system considering the complex relationship between lifeline system subsystems. Based on the existing research results at home and abroad, this paper focuses on the characteristics of coupling of lifeline system subsystems, the overall design of lifeline system nodes and optimization of emergency response strategy. The main contents of this paper are as follows: firstly, the concept and characteristics of emergency and emergency management are summarized, a new method of dividing emergency management stages is proposed, and the core tasks and objectives of each phase are explained. This paper analyzes on the characteristics and differences of the emergency relationship modes at home and abroad, and expounds the problems to be solved urgently in the emergency management of emergencies in China and the problems to be solved in this paper. Secondly, the lifeline system with multi-system coupling and multi-level distribution is abstracted into a node-relation graph through the influence matrix. Considering the interaction between any two nodes of different classes in the system, with the goal of maximizing the total service capacity of the system network, the mathematical model of the integrated design of the lifeline system nodes under the constraint of budget and funds is established. An effective genetic algorithm is designed to solve the model, and the convergence of the algorithm is demonstrated by numerical experiments on different scales. Finally, taking the typical situation as a case, this paper deeply analyzes the commonness and difference of the solution under different circumstances, which has important reference value for the rational design of lifeline system in the decision-making department. Finally, the lifeline system is abstracted as a multi-layer distributed supply chain system network for the emergency response stage. The relationship within the subsystem is represented by the network flow of the supply chain, the relationship between the subsystems is described by the failure input and output model, the dynamic characteristics of the system node repair and the available resources and time constraints are analyzed. The joint optimization model of emergency repair strategy and real time operation strategy is established. Through actual case analysis, compared with the independent emergency response strategy of each subsystem, the joint emergency response strategy model is more excellent and can effectively reduce the total loss of the whole lifeline system. Provide comprehensive and effective decision support for decision makers.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：D63

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