快消品生产项目的订单优化管理

发布时间：2018-06-25 23:14

本文选题：消费品 + 需求不确定　；参考：《上海交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：N公司所在行业是服装行业,其中由于制造周期长,季节性明显,同类产品需求集中,而且过季产品会造成库存积压,而且订单往往提前6-8个月就提交给上游公司进行制造,导致实际需求不确定性比较大,所以会有大量的订单取消。本文研究基于N公司实际业务情况,分析了公司订单相关历史数据,结合统计建模的方法,综合使用了线性回归,神经网络模型以及灰色模型的研究方法,以及时间周期性和季节性的特点,考虑最终可能影响到最终订单取消情况的因素,建立起精确的预测的模型,通过模型建立预测未来订单取消情况,该方法最终会应用于为公司高层战略决策提供数据支持,并且对于销售情况,库存状况和产品品类以及产品属性都进行分析。同时基于预测模型的预测结果和研究,对于N公司供应链提出了基于快速响应,数据支持以及增加柔性等建议,提供了可供使用的基于预测模型的工具,使其更能够应对复杂的环境,并且根据预测结果进行决策。并且分析行业内新兴企业的供应链和订单管理模式,从整体上来说,对于两种模式的优劣势比较,也提出了两种企业的供应链特点。最后对于N公司提出不确定条件下消费品的管理方法提出了能够使其更好地控制供应商,更多的依靠数据进行决策,一切以实际数据和供应链最优为基础,提出的供应链模式进行上下游分析。最终对于服装行业的供应模式提出建议和思考。
[Abstract]:Company N is in the clothing industry. Because of its long manufacturing cycle, obvious seasonality, concentrated demand for similar products, and over-season products will cause overstocking, and orders are often submitted to upstream companies for manufacture 6-8 months in advance. The uncertainty of actual demand is greater, so there will be a large number of orders cancelled. In this paper, based on the actual business situation of N Company, we analyze the historical data related to the company's orders, combine the statistical modeling method, and use the research methods of linear regression, neural network model and grey model synthetically. As well as the characteristics of periodicity and seasonality, considering the factors that may affect the cancellation of the final order, an accurate forecasting model is established, and the cancellation of future orders is predicted by the model. The method will eventually be applied to provide data support for the company's high-level strategic decision, and analyze the sales situation, inventory status, product category and product attributes. At the same time, based on the prediction results and research of forecasting model, the paper puts forward some suggestions for N company supply chain based on rapid response, data support and flexibility, and provides a tool based on forecasting model for use. Make it more able to cope with the complex environment and make decisions based on the prediction results. It also analyzes the supply chain and order management mode of the new enterprises in the industry. On the whole, the characteristics of the supply chain of the two kinds of enterprises are put forward by comparing the advantages and disadvantages of the two models. Finally, for N Company to put forward the management method of consumer goods under uncertain conditions, which can make it better control suppliers, more rely on data for decision-making, all based on the actual data and supply chain optimization. The proposed supply chain model is analyzed upstream and downstream. Finally, the supply mode of the clothing industry put forward suggestions and thinking.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.86;F274

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