不确定需求情境下的供应链预测契约设计

发布时间：2018-06-29 09:50

本文选题：供应链 + 预测　；参考：《中国管理科学》2013年05期

【摘要】：以报童模型为基础,研究了在由单一生厂商和零售商组成的供应链系统中,生产商如何通过契约设计来影响零售商的需求预测行为,使其收益最大化的问题。文章基于静态博弈模型对此问题进行了分析,发现在整合供应链情境下,当需求预测成本较小时选择预测能够获得更高的期望收益;在分散式供应链情境下,当生产商选择预测契约时,预测成本最终由生产商承担,且其期望收益为预测成本的减函数,而选择无预测契约时则为预测成本的非减函数;最后通过生产商期望收益对比,给出了最优策略。
[Abstract]:Based on the newsboy model, this paper studies how the manufacturer influences the retailer's demand forecasting behavior and maximizes its profit through contract design in the supply chain system composed of single manufacturer and retailer. Based on the static game model, this paper analyzes this problem and finds that in the integrated supply chain situation, the expected income can be higher when the cost of demand forecasting is small, and in the decentralized supply chain. When the producer chooses the forecast contract, the forecast cost is ultimately borne by the producer, and the expected income is the reduction function of the forecast cost, while the non-reduction function of the forecast cost is chosen without the forecast contract. Finally, the expected income of the producer is compared. The optimal strategy is given.
【作者单位】：长安大学经济与管理学院;西安交通大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金资助项目(13BJY080) 陕西省软科学研究计划项目(2012KRZ10)
【分类号】：F224;F274

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