整车企业新能源汽车发展规划研究

发布时间：2018-07-06 14:07

本文选题：新能源汽车 + 需求预测　；参考：《华南理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：全球汽车产业正处于转型升级的重要战略机遇期，新能源汽车已成为国际汽车产业发展的主要方向，发展新能源汽车产业链已成为我国汽车工业转型升级的战略取向。新能源汽车市场需求正逐步形成，企业着眼未来应加快布局抢占市场，发展新能源汽车已成为中国汽车企业发展的必由之路，我国迎来新能源汽车产业发展的重要战略机遇期。整车制造业属于投资建设周期长、技术与资本密集、高度依赖规模效应的国民经济核心工业产业之一，发展汽车产业必须立足长远规划，整车企业发展新能源汽车与发展常规内燃汽车有很多共通之处，但两者又有明显的区别，因此研究与之匹配的企业发展规划理论体系显得尤为重要。本文系统地分析了我国新能源汽车产业政策环境，分析了全球新能源汽车产业发展现状并指出各项关键技术的发展趋势。在全球能源危机和环境保护问题日渐突出的国际大环境下，发展新能源汽车已成为国际汽车产业的发展方向，新一轮技术和产业竞争已揭开序幕。在我国，，能源紧张和环境污染问题更加突出，加快培育和发展新能源汽车产业，已成为我国政府缓解能源、环境保护压力和加快汽车产业转型升级、培育新的增长点的战略举措。与传统车相比，在有财政补贴的情况下，新能源汽车价格与传统汽车基本持平或者略高，新能源汽车市场推广所需的充电设施和环境配套处于建设起步期，中国已初步具备新能源汽车市场高速发展所需的产业基础、市场土壤和政策环境。本文以国内汽车市场销售历史数据、新能源汽车销售数据、人均GDP、国民收入、汽车工业投资额、城镇化率等国民经济数据作为模型的输入，分别应用了相关性分析、时间序列法、多元回归模型、指数平滑法建立数学模型体系对2014-2020年国内新能源汽车销量进行预测分析，预测未来7年国内新能源乘用车和商用车的年度销量。本文对全球新能源汽车市场推广商业模式进行了归纳总结和对比分析，总结出四种典型商业推广模式，即融资性租赁、经营性租赁、买方信贷、以租代购模式。为建立整车企业新能源汽车发展规划理论体系，本文基于企业发展环境分析、市场需求预测、商业模式及企业战略定位分析，以稳步提升市场占有率为发展目标，从技术路线、公司战略、产品策略、商业模式、制造策略、关键零部件配套策略等维度进行系统分析，建立整车企业新能源汽车发展规划理论体系。建立起规划理论体系后，本文选取某整车企业为实例，应用本文建立的分析方法提出该企业2014-2020年新能源汽车发展规划方案，为企业明确公司战略定位、整合内部资源、培育供应链体系等实践行为提供理论支撑和参考。
[Abstract]:The global automobile industry is in the important strategic opportunity period of transformation and upgrading. The new energy automobile has become the main direction of the development of the international automobile industry, and the development of the new energy automobile industry chain has become the strategic orientation of the transformation and upgrading of China's automobile industry. The new energy automobile market demand is forming step by step, the enterprise should speed up the layout to seize the market in the future, the development of the new energy automobile has become the only way of the development of the Chinese automobile enterprise, our country ushered in the important strategic opportunity period of the development of the new energy automobile industry. The automobile manufacturing industry is one of the core industries of the national economy, which has a long period of investment and construction, technology and capital intensive, and highly dependent on scale effects. The development of the automobile industry must be based on long-term planning. There are many similarities between the development of new energy vehicles and the development of conventional internal combustion vehicles, but there are obvious differences between them, so it is very important to study the theoretical system of enterprise development planning. This paper systematically analyzes the policy environment of China's new energy automobile industry, analyzes the present situation of the development of the global new energy automobile industry and points out the development trend of various key technologies. With the global energy crisis and environmental protection problems becoming increasingly prominent in the international environment, the development of new energy vehicles has become the development direction of the international automobile industry, a new round of technology and industrial competition has been opened. In our country, the problems of energy stress and environmental pollution are more prominent. Speeding up the cultivation and development of new energy automobile industry has become our government to alleviate the pressure of energy, environmental protection and accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry. A strategic move to foster new growth points. Compared with traditional vehicles, under the condition of financial subsidies, the price of new energy vehicles is basically equal to or slightly higher than that of traditional vehicles, and the charging facilities and environment necessary for the promotion of new energy vehicles are in the initial stage of construction. China already has the industrial foundation, the market soil and the policy environment for the rapid development of the new energy automobile market. Based on the historical data of the domestic automobile market, the new energy vehicle sales data, the per capita GDP, the national income, the investment in the automobile industry, the urbanization rate and other national economic data as the input of the model, this paper applies the correlation analysis, respectively. Time series method, multivariate regression model and exponential smoothing method are used to forecast and analyze the sales of domestic new energy vehicles in 2014-2020, and to predict the annual sales of domestic new energy passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles in the next seven years. This paper summarizes and compares the commercial models of the global new energy automobile market, and concludes four typical commercial promotion models, namely, financing lease, operating lease, buyer's credit, and purchasing by lease. In order to set up a new energy vehicle development planning theory system, based on enterprise development environment analysis, market demand prediction, business model and enterprise strategic positioning analysis, this paper aims to steadily increase market share as the development goal, from the technical line, The company strategy, product strategy, business model, manufacturing strategy, key parts matching strategy and other dimensions are systematically analyzed, and the theoretical system of new energy vehicle development planning for the whole vehicle enterprise is established. After the establishment of the planning theory system, this paper selects a whole vehicle enterprise as an example, and applies the analytical method established in this paper to put forward a new energy vehicle development planning plan for the enterprise 2014-2020, so as to define the strategic positioning of the company and integrate the internal resources for the enterprise. To cultivate supply chain system and other practical behaviors to provide theoretical support and reference.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.471

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