服装行业订单预测准确性提高与研究

发布时间：2018-08-10 07:19

【摘要】：随着服装市场竞争的加剧，普遍买方强势市场的形成，由此制约服装企业发展的瓶颈开始从生产转向流通环节，供应链管理在服装企业中的研究与运用对企业的发展具有重要现实和实用价值。在服装企业里，订单预测是供应链的重要环节，同时也是供应链管理有效实施的基础。运动服装企业的发展现状也为订单预测之应用研究提供了客观条件基础:一方面，市场竞争压力迫使企业对订单预测方面增加了认知与需求；另一方面，经过多年发展，世界服装行业已形成以生产技术成熟，能力庞大的服装工业体系，拥有开发利用供应链管理以及销售订单预测的数据基础。本论文针对运动服装企业发展现状及面临的实际问题，从提高订单预测的应用价值入手，来帮助企业解决部分实际困难，达到降低企业供应链运营成本，，协调企业供应系统链接，提高顾客满意度，巩固终端市场占有率，从而达到提升企业竞争能力的目的。本论文主要工作内容及成果如下:通过比较各类预测方法及其适用范围，结合N公司服装企业现状及其目前产品特征，分析指出适合该服装企业的预测方法；根据该服装企业订单预测与数据分析的需要，为该企业构建数据模型，同时指导企业进行数据收集工作；根据企业的实际需求，对影响订单的因素进行组合分析，并从多个方向建立解决不同类型的数据分析模型；通过建立企业的历史数据库模型、数据分析模型、销售订单预测模型，从而建立并完善企业的预测系统。
[Abstract]:With the intensification of competition in the clothing market and the formation of a strong market for buyers, the bottleneck restricting the development of garment enterprises began to shift from production to circulation. The research and application of supply chain management in garment enterprises has important practical and practical value for the development of enterprises. In garment enterprises, order forecasting is an important part of supply chain, and it is also the basis of effective implementation of supply chain management. The development of sportswear enterprises also provides an objective basis for the application of order forecasting: on the one hand, market competition pressure forces enterprises to increase their cognition and demand for order forecasting; on the other hand, after years of development, The garment industry in the world has formed a garment industry system with mature production technology and huge capacity. It has the data base of developing and utilizing supply chain management and forecasting sales orders. In this paper, aiming at the current situation of sports apparel enterprises and the practical problems they are facing, starting with improving the application value of order forecasting, we can help enterprises solve some practical difficulties and reduce the operation cost of supply chain. Coordinate enterprise supply system link, improve customer satisfaction, consolidate terminal market share, and achieve the purpose of enhancing enterprise competitiveness. The main contents and achievements of this paper are as follows: by comparing all kinds of forecasting methods and their applicable scope, combining with the current situation and current product characteristics of N company, this paper analyzes and points out the forecasting methods suitable for this clothing enterprise; According to the need of order prediction and data analysis of the garment enterprise, the data model is built for the enterprise, and the data collection work is guided, and the factors affecting the order are analyzed according to the actual demand of the enterprise. Through the establishment of enterprise's historical database model, data analysis model and sales order forecasting model, the enterprise forecasting system is established and perfected.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F274;F416.86

【共引文献】