订单农业供应链中农户选择及订单分配问题研究

发布时间：2018-09-07 08:16

【摘要】：订单农业供应链实现了农户的小生产与大市场的有效对接,既保证了农户的收入,又提高了农业企业原材料供应的稳定性,在我国及世界上其它地区都得到了广泛的推广。然而,在订单农业供应链实际运营中,农业企业除了要应对市场风险外,还要面临农产品供应不确定的挑战。农产品供应不确定是指在农产品的成熟时期,公司按照契约合同进行农产品的收购,但农户所提供农产品的数量或质量是不确定的。农产品生长条件(如温度、湿度等)的变化、劳动力投入不足、农户的故意违约、农业气象灾害等都会导致农产品供应的不确定。农产品供应不确定不仅增加了农业企业的运营成本,而且还会影响农产品供应链的稳定性和可靠性,进而制约我国农业产业化的发展。目前,关于订单农业供应链的研究大多从完善契约的角度应对违约风险,鲜有从企业的角度研究如何应对农产品供应不确定。论文针对订单农业供应链中农产品供应不确定问题,从农业龙头企业决策者的采购决策视角出发,采用事前风险控制策略,研究如何通过公司选择农户及订单分配的优化来有效缓解或降低因农产品供应不确定导致的公司损失。首先,对云南省某省级重点农业龙头企业进行了实地调研,在了解企业基本信息的基础上对企业所提供的2015年农户签约量及其供应的相关数据进行了统计分析,发现农户实际供应农产品在数量和质量上都是不确定的,而且这种不确定服从正态分布。其次,考虑企业与农户签约开始至收购季农产品收购完成这一过程中所涉及到的企业成本支出,以期望总成本最小为目标函数,建立了农产品供应不确定下农户选择及订单分配模型。再次,依据调研数据设计了若干不同的仿真算例,并分别用遗传算法和粒子群算法对算例进行求解,验证了模型的有效性和算法的可行性,并从运算速度和精确度两个方面对两种算法求解结果进行比较,发现粒子群算法对于求解模型具有相对的优势。最后,通过参数灵敏度分析发现：在农户供应不确定的情况下,龙头企业与农户的总签约量均大于实际需求量,且总签约量和期望总成本随农户实际供应不稳定程度的增加而增大：期望总成本随单位采购成本、单位农户契约关系建立成本、单位生产技术服务成本、供应率的标准差的增加而线性增加,随单位缺货成本和单位处理成本的增加而线性减少；总签约量随着单位采购成本、单位生产技术服务成本的增加总体呈现减少趋势,随着单位缺货成本、单位处理成本和供应率的标准差的增加总体呈增加趋势；单位农户契约关系建立成本、农户的生产能力、供应率的均值以及供应率的标准差的组合变化对农户选择的结果影响不明显,但随着这四个参数的不断优化,农户被选择的几率增大,但处于同一水平的农户被选择的几率并不完全相同。论文的研究有利于进一步完善订单农业供应链管理理论,对于提高农业企业应对供应不确定风险能力,降低运营成本,进而提高订单农业供应链的稳定性有积极意义。
[Abstract]:The order agricultural supply chain has realized the effective docking between the small-scale production of farmers and the large market, guaranteeing the income of farmers and improving the stability of raw material supply of agricultural enterprises, which has been widely promoted in China and other parts of the world. Uncertainty in the supply of agricultural products refers to the acquisition of agricultural products by companies in accordance with contract contracts during the mature period of agricultural products, but the quantity or quality of agricultural products provided by farmers is uncertain. Farmers'deliberate default, agricultural meteorological disasters and other disasters will lead to uncertainty in the supply of agricultural products. Uncertainty in the supply of agricultural products not only increases the operating costs of agricultural enterprises, but also affects the stability and reliability of the supply chain of agricultural products, thus restricting the development of agricultural industrialization in China. Most of them deal with the risk of breach of contract from the perspective of perfecting contracts, but few of them study how to deal with the supply uncertainty of agricultural products from the perspective of enterprises. Firstly, the key agricultural leading enterprises in Yunnan Province were investigated on the spot. On the basis of understanding the basic information of the enterprises, the relevant data of farmers'contract volume and its supply in 2015 were provided by the enterprises. Statistical analysis shows that the quantity and quality of agricultural products supplied by farmers are uncertain, and the uncertainties obey normal distribution. Secondly, considering the cost expenditure of enterprises involved in the process from the contract between enterprises and farmers to the completion of purchasing seasonal agricultural products, the objective function is to minimize the expected total cost. Thirdly, according to the research data, several different simulation examples are designed and solved by genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization respectively. The validity of the model and the feasibility of the algorithm are verified, and the two algorithms are solved from two aspects of operation speed and accuracy. Finally, through parameter sensitivity analysis, it is found that the total amount of contract signed between leading enterprises and farmers is greater than the actual demand, and the total amount of contract signed and the expected total cost increase with the degree of instability of farmers'actual supply. The expected total cost increases linearly with the increase of unit purchase cost, unit farmer contractual relationship establishment cost, unit production technology service cost and standard deviation of supply rate, and linearly decreases with the increase of unit shortage cost and unit processing cost; the total contracted quantity decreases linearly with unit purchase cost and unit production technology service cost. With the unit shortage cost, the standard deviation of unit processing cost and supply rate increases as a whole; the combination of the contract establishment cost, the productive capacity, the mean of supply rate and the standard deviation of supply rate has no obvious effect on the result of farmers'choice, but with the increase of unit shortage cost, the standard deviation of unit processing cost and supply rate increases as a whole. With the continuous optimization of these four parameters, the probability of farmers being selected increases, but the probability of farmers being selected at the same level is not entirely the same. The study of this paper is conducive to further improve the theory of order agricultural supply chain management, to improve the ability of agricultural enterprises to cope with supply uncertainties risk, reduce operating costs, and then increase the order. The stability of single agricultural supply chain is of positive significance.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F326.6
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本文编号：2227718