基于中断风险的供应链系统鲁棒控制及优化

发布时间：2018-09-11 08:47

【摘要】：全球一体化的浪潮推动着世界经济的发展，也带来了世界经济发展模式的变革，企业的发展从传统的各自为政迈向了集群化的供应链运作，一方面，供应链体系的运作为各企业带来了更多的收益，另一方面，日趋复杂的竞争环境也为企业带来了更多的风险，致使供应链中断事件屡有发生，造成重要的损失。市场对于一套完备供应链中断风险防范体系的需求日益迫切。针对上述情况，，基于已有的研究成果，中断风险因素防范和供应链鲁棒性问题成为本次研究的主要内容，并提出了针对中断风险因素的鲁棒性管理体系，优化了供应链系统的运作方法，有效的扼制了中断风险因素对供应链系统的影响。该体系主要包括三个方面。 (1)现有的风险防范机制大多是讨论风险发生后的管理和应对，却忽略了外部中断风险对于供应链有着先天的影响，虽然可以通过风险管理对中断的影响进行控制，但是造成的损失却是无法挽回的。对此，本文提出了针对外部中断风险的鲁棒性供应链设计算法，通过兼顾效益与鲁棒性，求取运营与风险成本的最小值，从而实现系统的最优化。 (2)基于多模型预测控制的供应链管理系统，结合了供应链系统的特性，优化了控制系统的算法，能够使得系统在利润最大化的前提下，确保系统鲁棒性，系统得出的方案可以有效的为系统的信息处理、生产计划和物流配送提供有力的借鉴。 (3)针对于严重的中断风险，本文以多模型预测控制的管理方法为基础，采用了模型切换的方法，充分发挥了系统信息化、集群化的特点，能够在风险发生之初就进行响应，以最快的速度恢复供应链系统的运作。以上三个方面分别考虑了中断风险发生的过程、内外部结构与恢复措施的机理，充分协调供应链上各企业，形成一套有机的整体，从而实现了对供应链中断的防范。本文还通过Matlab对系统进行了仿真，进一步对本文所提出方法的有效性进行了验证，仿真结果表明，该体系能够有效的消除中断风险因素对于系统的影响，表现出良好的鲁棒性。
[Abstract]:The tide of global integration has promoted the development of the world economy and brought about the transformation of the development mode of the world economy. The development of enterprises has moved from the traditional management to the operation of the cluster supply chain, on the one hand, The operation of supply chain system brings more profits to the enterprises, on the other hand, the increasingly complex competition environment also brings more risks to the enterprises, which leads to the frequent occurrence of supply chain interruptions, resulting in important losses. The market for a complete supply chain interruption risk prevention system is increasingly urgent. In view of the above situation, based on the existing research results, the prevention of interruption risk factors and supply chain robustness become the main content of this study, and a robust management system for interruption risk factors is proposed. The operation method of supply chain system is optimized and the influence of interruption risk factor on supply chain system is effectively restrained. The system mainly includes three aspects. (1) most of the existing risk prevention mechanisms discuss the management and response after the occurrence of risk, but ignore the inherent impact of the external interruption risk on the supply chain. Although the impact of interruptions can be controlled through risk management, the damage caused is irreparable. In this paper, a robust supply chain design algorithm for external interruption risk is proposed. The minimum value of operation and risk cost can be obtained by taking both benefit and robustness into account. Thus the optimization of the system is realized. (2) the supply chain management system based on multi-model predictive control combines the characteristics of the supply chain system and optimizes the algorithm of the control system, which can make the system under the premise of maximizing the profit. To ensure the robustness of the system, the system can effectively provide information processing, production planning and logistics distribution to provide a strong reference. (3) for the serious interruption risk, Based on the management method of multi-model predictive control and the method of model switching, this paper gives full play to the characteristics of system information and cluster, and can respond at the beginning of risk. Resume the operation of the supply chain system as quickly as possible. The above three aspects consider the process of interruption risk, the mechanism of internal and external structure and recovery measures, and fully coordinate the enterprises in the supply chain to form an organic whole, thus realizing the prevention of supply chain disruption. This paper also simulates the system by Matlab, and further validates the effectiveness of the proposed method. The simulation results show that the system can effectively eliminate the impact of interruption risk factors on the system, and show good robustness.
【学位授予单位】：武汉纺织大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TP13;F274

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