供应链网络道德风险演化与仿真研究

发布时间：2018-10-11 18:21

【摘要】：针对目前供应链网络存在的越来越严重的道德风险问题,利用演化博弈和系统动力学理论,从供应链网络结构入手,对其演化过程进行了研究。首先基于供应商之间合作过程中的诚信和败德行为,建立供应链网络同级企业间道德风险的演化博弈模型,并分析了其演化路径。其次通过对制造商和供应商之间博弈的动态性分析,建立供应链网络上下游企业间道德风险演化的SD模型,并对其演化过程进行了仿真分析。研究结果表明:供应链网络道德风险的演化结果取决于网络内败德企业获得的超额收益、收益调整程度、惩罚力度和惩罚机制。另外,罚款力度大小与供应链网络道德风险演化的动态性密切相关;动态惩罚机制在其演化的波动性控制方面,具有明显效果。
[Abstract]:In view of the more and more serious moral hazard problem existing in supply chain network at present, the evolutionary process of supply chain network is studied by using evolutionary game theory and system dynamics theory, starting with the network structure of supply chain. Firstly, based on the integrity and moral behavior in the process of cooperation between suppliers, the evolutionary game model of moral hazard among enterprises in the supply chain network is established, and the evolutionary path is analyzed. Secondly, through the dynamic analysis of the game between manufacturer and supplier, the SD model of moral hazard evolution between upstream and downstream enterprises in supply chain network is established, and the evolution process is simulated. The results show that the evolution of moral hazard in supply chain depends on the excess income, the degree of income adjustment, the degree of punishment and the mechanism of punishment. In addition, the degree of penalty is closely related to the dynamics of the evolution of moral hazard in supply chain network, and the dynamic punishment mechanism has obvious effect on the control of its evolution volatility.
【作者单位】：天津科技大学食品安全战略与管理研究中心经济与管理学院;
【基金】：天津市教委人文社会科学重大项目(2012ZD044)阶段成果
【分类号】：F224;F274

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