模糊供给下生物质发电供应链模式及契约协调研究

发布时间：2018-11-09 19:52

【摘要】：近年来,随着我国工业化、城镇化的深入推进,能源资源消耗持续增加,以煤为主的能源结构严重影响了人民的身体健康和生活环境,引起社会各界对环境污染问题的密切关切。生物质能是重要清洁的可再生能源,是全球继石油、煤炭、天然气之后的第四大能源,成为国际能源转型的重要力量。生物质能具有绿色、低碳、清洁、可再生且储存丰富等特点,具有广阔的发展前景。加快生物质能开发利用,是推进能源生产和消费革命的重要内容,是改善环境质量、发展循环经济的重要任务。在“十三五”发展期间,国家大力推动生物质能源产业发展,但秸秆收集困难成为制约我国生物质能源产业发展的主要问题。本文将农户的秸秆供给数量作为模糊变量,在两种供应模式下建立秸秆燃料供给模型,通过模型推导和算例模型分析了两种模式下供应链三方契约数量及秸秆供给情况。研究结果表明:农户的期望供给数量主要取决于秸秆收购价格和前期的固定资本投入;中间商的利润水平很大程度上决定了农户的供给数量和电厂的收购数量;在农户→农村正式组织→电厂的供应模式下,农户的供给数量始终保持在较高的水平。契约协调是促进供应链优化的重要方式,合理的契约可以激励供应链各方,改善各方的行为。本文在模糊供给情况下,探讨了成本分担契约、收益共享契约和期货契约对生物质发电燃料供应链的影响:在成本分担契约中,电厂和中间商主动分担农户的固定成本,可以有效的激励农户做出供给秸秆行为,保证秸秆供给数量的增加,电厂、中间商和农户模糊期望收益也相应增加,但由于分担成本的增加,会额外增加电厂或中间商的风险,其契约数量会有所减少;在收益共享契约中,收益共享契约对供应链稳定具有明显的效果,在签订收益共享契约后,农户秸秆供应数量和中间商秸秆收购情况都不断好转,代价是电厂让渡一部分的发电收益;在期货契约中,低保证金和高收购价格情形下,供应链更加稳定。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the further development of industrialization and urbanization in our country, the consumption of energy and resources has been continuously increasing. The energy structure based on coal has seriously affected the people's health and living environment. Causes the social all walks of life to the environmental pollution question the close concern. Biomass energy is an important clean renewable energy, is the world's fourth largest energy after oil, coal, natural gas, has become an important force in the international energy transformation. Biomass energy has the characteristics of green, low carbon, clean, renewable and abundant storage. Speeding up the development and utilization of biomass energy is an important content of promoting the revolution of energy production and consumption, and an important task of improving environmental quality and developing circular economy. During the development of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the state vigorously promoted the development of biomass energy industry, but the difficulty of straw collection has become the main problem restricting the development of biomass energy industry in China. In this paper, the amount of straw supply of farmers is taken as a fuzzy variable, and the model of straw fuel supply is established under two supply modes. Through the model derivation and example model, the quantity of supply chain and the supply of straw are analyzed. The results show that the expected supply quantity of farmers mainly depends on the purchase price of straw and the fixed capital input in the preceding period, and the profit level of the middleman largely determines the supply quantity of farmers and the purchase quantity of power plant. Under the supply mode of rural formal organization of power plants, the supply quantity of farmers has always been kept at a higher level. Contract coordination is an important way to promote the optimization of supply chain. Reasonable contract can stimulate and improve the behavior of all parties in the supply chain. In the case of fuzzy supply, this paper discusses the effects of cost sharing contract, income sharing contract and futures contract on biomass power generation fuel supply chain. In the cost sharing contract, the power plant and middleman actively share the fixed cost of farmers. Farmers can be effectively encouraged to make straw supply behavior to ensure the increase in the amount of straw supply, power plants, middlemen and farmers fuzzy expected income is also increased, but due to the increase of cost sharing, it will increase the risk of power plants or middlemen. The number of contracts will be reduced; In the revenue-sharing contract, the revenue-sharing contract has obvious effect on the stability of the supply chain. After the signing of the revenue-sharing contract, the amount of straw supplied by farmers and the purchase of straw by middlemen are all improved. The cost is the transfer of part of the power generation proceeds; In futures contracts, the supply chain is more stable under the condition of low margin and high purchase price.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F274;F426.61

【参考文献】