突发事件对物价指数及需求变动的相关性仿真研究
发布时间：2018-11-11 09:55
【摘要】：近十多年来,随着全球经济一体化的不断进步,企业面临的竞争日益激烈,为了能够快速有效地适应迅速变换的市场,许多企业利用供应链的思想重构其业务流程,快速响应市场。但是,供应链并不是万能的,它是一个复杂的系统,当参与供应链的主体越来越多时,供应链的运作也就越来越精巧复杂,一个突如其来的灾难可能会让平时运作状态极佳的供应链系统产生瘫痪。近些年来,发生了很多的突发事件,给整个社会、企业以及个人等带来了很大的损失。当事件发生后,如何来更好地应对突发事件就是非常重要的,因此,必须进一步深入地了解突发事件,认真分析它对节点企业的影响。目前,学术界对供应链突发事件研究的滞后与供应链实业界面临的突发事件越来越严重的挑战构成了鲜明的对比。本文正是基于此,从突发事件的基础知识研究入手,总结出突发事件涵义、特征及分类,最后运用Simulink仿真技术,构建了三级供应链库存模型,在此基础上来分析突发事件对物价指数及需求变动的影响。本文主要从两个方面来研究突发事件对供应链节点企业的影响：一是突发事件如何影响物价指数的；二是突发事件导致需求发生变动后,是如何影响节点企业的。具体的研究结果如下：在分析突发事件对物价指数的影响时,本文利用ARIMA模型研究了突发事件——2008年南方雪灾事件对物价指数的影响。分析结果发现,在雪灾事件发生期间,物价指数指数实际值与预测值的差值大部分都为正数,说明雪灾事件对我国物价指数产生了上涨的正向冲击。在分析突发事件对需求变动的影响时,创建了Simulink仿真模型下的关于三级供应链库存模型,分析了突发事件后,供应链层级和提前期参数的变化对节点企业的影响,通过计算最大李雅普诺夫指数LE值,来判定供应链系统的稳定性。最终得出,在信息不共享条件下：(1)从零售商到生产商,缺货量LE值减小,说明节点企业的不确定性减小；(2)从零售商到生产商,库存量LE值减小,说明节点企业的稳定性增加；(3)并不是提前期越大,就会导致供应链系统稳定性越低。在信息共享条件下：供应链节点企业之间的所有信息等都是互相分享的,在此情况下,不同的参数所导致的供应链系统不确定性要有所改善。
[Abstract]:In recent ten years, with the continuous progress of global economic integration, enterprises are facing increasingly fierce competition. In order to adapt rapidly and effectively to the rapidly changing market, many enterprises use the idea of supply chain to reconstruct their business processes. Respond quickly to the market. However, the supply chain is not omnipotent, it is a complex system, when more and more participants participate in the supply chain, the operation of the supply chain becomes more and more sophisticated and complex. A sudden disaster could paralyse a well-functioning supply chain. In recent years, a lot of unexpected events have taken place, which have brought great losses to the whole society, enterprises and individuals. It is very important how to deal with emergencies better after the event occurs. Therefore, it is necessary to further understand the emergency and analyze its impact on the node enterprises. At present, the lag in the research of supply chain emergencies in academic circles is in sharp contrast to the more and more serious challenges facing the supply chain industry. Based on this, this paper starts with the research of the basic knowledge of emergency, summarizes the meaning, characteristics and classification of emergency, and finally constructs a three-level supply chain inventory model by using Simulink simulation technology. On this basis, to analyze the impact of unexpected events on the price index and demand changes. This paper mainly studies the impact of unexpected events on supply chain node enterprises from two aspects: first, how emergencies affect the price index; second, how to affect node enterprises after unexpected events cause changes in demand. The results are as follows: in the analysis of the impact of unexpected events on the price index, this paper uses ARIMA model to study the impact of the sudden events-the snow disaster in 2008 on the price index. The results show that the difference between the actual value of the price index and the predicted value is mostly positive during the snow disaster event, which indicates that the snow disaster event has a positive impact on the price index of our country. When analyzing the impact of unexpected events on demand change, a three-level supply chain inventory model based on Simulink simulation model is established, and the impact of the change of supply chain level and lead time parameters on the node enterprises is analyzed. The stability of the supply chain system is determined by calculating the maximum Lyapunov exponent LE. Finally, under the condition that the information is not shared: (1) from retailer to producer, the LE value of stock shortage decreases, which indicates that the uncertainty of node enterprise is reduced; (2) from retailer to manufacturer, the LE value of inventory decreases, which indicates that the stability of node enterprise increases; (3) the longer the lead time, the lower the stability of supply chain system. Under the condition of information sharing, all the information between the supply chain node enterprises is shared with each other. In this case, the uncertainty of the supply chain system caused by different parameters should be improved.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F726;F274
本文编号：2324493
[Abstract]:In recent ten years, with the continuous progress of global economic integration, enterprises are facing increasingly fierce competition. In order to adapt rapidly and effectively to the rapidly changing market, many enterprises use the idea of supply chain to reconstruct their business processes. Respond quickly to the market. However, the supply chain is not omnipotent, it is a complex system, when more and more participants participate in the supply chain, the operation of the supply chain becomes more and more sophisticated and complex. A sudden disaster could paralyse a well-functioning supply chain. In recent years, a lot of unexpected events have taken place, which have brought great losses to the whole society, enterprises and individuals. It is very important how to deal with emergencies better after the event occurs. Therefore, it is necessary to further understand the emergency and analyze its impact on the node enterprises. At present, the lag in the research of supply chain emergencies in academic circles is in sharp contrast to the more and more serious challenges facing the supply chain industry. Based on this, this paper starts with the research of the basic knowledge of emergency, summarizes the meaning, characteristics and classification of emergency, and finally constructs a three-level supply chain inventory model by using Simulink simulation technology. On this basis, to analyze the impact of unexpected events on the price index and demand changes. This paper mainly studies the impact of unexpected events on supply chain node enterprises from two aspects: first, how emergencies affect the price index; second, how to affect node enterprises after unexpected events cause changes in demand. The results are as follows: in the analysis of the impact of unexpected events on the price index, this paper uses ARIMA model to study the impact of the sudden events-the snow disaster in 2008 on the price index. The results show that the difference between the actual value of the price index and the predicted value is mostly positive during the snow disaster event, which indicates that the snow disaster event has a positive impact on the price index of our country. When analyzing the impact of unexpected events on demand change, a three-level supply chain inventory model based on Simulink simulation model is established, and the impact of the change of supply chain level and lead time parameters on the node enterprises is analyzed. The stability of the supply chain system is determined by calculating the maximum Lyapunov exponent LE. Finally, under the condition that the information is not shared: (1) from retailer to producer, the LE value of stock shortage decreases, which indicates that the uncertainty of node enterprise is reduced; (2) from retailer to manufacturer, the LE value of inventory decreases, which indicates that the stability of node enterprise increases; (3) the longer the lead time, the lower the stability of supply chain system. Under the condition of information sharing, all the information between the supply chain node enterprises is shared with each other. In this case, the uncertainty of the supply chain system caused by different parameters should be improved.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F726;F274
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